Bitcoin News Today: "Institutions Anchor Bitcoin's $100K Defense as Bearish Clouds Gather"

Bitcoin's Crucial Standoff: Struggling to Maintain the $100,000 Mark

Bitcoin's price has entered a critical phase as it grapples to hold above the $100,000 psychological threshold, a level that has historically served as both a technical and psychological floor for the asset. On November 3, 2025, the cryptocurrency dipped below $109,500, triggering automatic sell orders and intensifying market speculation about a potential breakdown below the $107,000–$108,000 support zone, according to a Coinpedia update. Analysts remain divided: some view the current correction as a temporary capitulation before a rally, while others warn of a deeper bearish shift.

The technical picture is mixed. Plan B, the analyst behind the stock-to-flow model, noted that Bitcoin's monthly RSI of 66 indicates a strong uptrend but not yet an overbought condition in a Crypto.news analysis. His model suggests a fair value range of $250,000–$1 million, though timing remains uncertain. However, recent data shows the realized price near $56,000 and a 55-day moving average at $55,000, forming a structural floor reminiscent of past bull markets. A breakdown below $107,000 could see the price retest $100,000, a level that has held firm for much of 2025.

Market dynamics are shifting as institutional and corporate buyers increasingly drive price action, while retail participation wanes. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen sustained outflows, with $797 million leaving the sector on November 4 alone, according to a Coinotag report. This follows a broader trend of retail investors—often termed "shrimps"—reducing exchange deposits in favor of ETFs and long-term self-custody, as shown in a CryptoRank report. The decline in retail activity has left institutional accumulation as the primary force behind Bitcoin's growth above $100,000, according to CryptoRank. Meanwhile, Solana ETFs buck the trend, attracting $84.88 million in net inflows over 30 days despite a 30% drop in SOL's price, a rotation toward high-yield, scalable blockchain ecosystems noted by Coinotag.

The macroeconomic backdrop adds complexity. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's hawkish remarks have reignited fears of delayed rate cuts, bolstering the U.S. dollar and pushing investors away from risk assets, as reported by Coinpedia. Bitcoin ETF outflows have accelerated, with BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) alone losing $185 million in November, Coinotag data show. Institutions are also moving large holdings to exchanges, with whales transferring $1.48 billion in BTC since October 1, according to Coinpedia, fueling speculation about potential sell-offs.

Bullish arguments hinge on Bitcoin's long-term structural support. Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan predicts a year-end target of $125,000–$150,000, citing historical patterns where retail despair precedes rebounds in a Bitwise forecast. He notes that institutional buying remains robust despite short-term volatility, with major ETFs like IBIT, FBTC, and GBTC continuing to accumulate BTC. Plan B's model also suggests that Bitcoin's realized price and moving average divergence points to a potential expansion phase, as earlier coverage noted.

Conversely, bearish indicators are mounting. Bitcoin's RSI, while not in overbought territory, has failed to break above key resistance levels, and the asset's monthly outflows exceed $1 billion since late October, Coinotag reports. AG META, a digital wealth management firm, warns that Bitcoin's volatility could see it dip below $100,000 in the short term, pushing investors toward real-world asset (RWA) strategies for hedging in an AG META warning. On-chain data also shows rising exchange reserves and stablecoin outflows, signaling defensive positioning in a Yahoo Finance analysis.

The outcome of this standoff will hinge on whether the $107,000–$108,000 zone holds. Stability above this level could pave the way for a rebound toward $112,000, while a breakdown risks a sharper correction to $93,000, according to Bitwise's outlook. For now, markets remain volatile, with over $1.7 billion in crypto liquidations reported in 24 hours as of November 4 in a Yahoo liquidation report.

As the year-end approaches, Bitcoin's fate will likely depend on macroeconomic clarity, institutional sentiment, and the resilience of its long-term fundamentals. For investors, the message is clear: caution is warranted, but the battle for $100,000 is far from over.