Bitcoin News Today: Institutional Inflows and On-Chain Metrics Signal Bitcoin's $130K Surge

Generated by AI AgentCoin World
Thursday, Oct 9, 2025 4:22 am ET2min read
Aime RobotAime Summary

- Bitcoin's on-chain metrics and institutional activity signal potential surge toward $130,000 amid bullish momentum from whale behavior and reduced exchange reserves.

- Volume Delta Imbalance Index (VDII) shows 23% buying pressure excess on major exchanges, while MVRV Z-Score hits overbought levels with projected $240,000 peak under current volatility trends.

- Whale transfers of $363 million to Hyperliquid and rising Coin Days Destroyed indicate profit-taking after $125,000 all-time high, though structural factors like 5Y low exchange reserves (2.38M BTC) limit immediate sell pressure.

- Institutional inflows into Bitcoin ETFs/ETPs reached $3.55B weekly, pushing total AUM to $195.2B, with analysts forecasting $130-140K targets by early 2026 despite short-term volatility risks from macroeconomic shocks.

Bitcoin's on-chain metrics and technical indicators are signaling a potential surge toward $130,000, driven by renewed activity among institutional investors and long-term holders. Three key metrics-volume delta imbalance, MVRV Z-Score, and whale behavior-highlight growing bullish momentum, despite short-term profit-taking.

The Volume Delta Imbalance Index (VDII), a technical tool analyzing volume and price dynamics, has shown significant shifts in recent weeks. The indicator's flow imbalance detection component revealed that buying pressure on major exchanges like Binance exceeded sell orders by 23% in early October 2025, as reported by CryptoQuant. This imbalance, combined with a Z-score of 0.79 (indicating above-average buying activity), suggests institutional and whale participation in the market. Additionally, the net buying pressure (vol_delta) surged past $500 million on multiple days, reinforcing the dominance of buyers.

The MVRV Z-Score, a metric comparing Bitcoin's market cap to its realized value, has entered overbought territory, signaling potential market tops. In the latest cycle, the Z-score reached 7-lower than historical peaks of 9–10-due to reduced volatility and a rounded double-peak pattern. Analysts at

Bitcoin
Magazine Pro note that the updated 2YR Rolling Z-Score, which factors in recent volatility trends, provides a more accurate framework for identifying extremes. Assuming a realized price of $60,000 and an MVRV ratio of 3.96, projections suggest a potential peak near $240,000. However, diminishing volatility could cap this at $180,000 if the ratio contracts to 3.0.

On-chain data indicates increased movement of dormant Bitcoin holdings, a classic sign of profit-taking or distribution. CryptoQuant reported that average dormancy-the time coins were held before being moved-reached a one-month high in early October 2025. Notably, a 12-year-old wallet transferred 100 BTC (worth $12.5 million) to new addresses, while a whale deposited 3,000 BTC ($363 million) into Hyperliquid, later converting 960.57 BTC to $116 million in USDC. These actions, combined with a spike in Coin Days Destroyed (CDD), suggest early adopters are locking in gains after Bitcoin's recent all-time high above $125,000.

Despite short-term corrections, structural factors support continued upside. Exchange reserves have fallen to a five-year low (2.38 million BTC), reducing immediate sell pressure. Institutional inflows into Bitcoin ETFs and ETPs reached $3.55 billion in a single week, pushing total assets under management to $195.2 billion. Analysts like Farzam Ehsani of VALR project Bitcoin testing $130,000–$135,000 in Q4 2025, with potential for $140,000 by Q1 2026. However, geopolitical or macroeconomic shocks could temporarily stall the rally, pushing prices toward $120,000 or $117,000.

The confluence of strong on-chain indicators, whale activity, and institutional demand suggests Bitcoin is poised for a significant price run. While profit-taking may create short-term volatility, the underlying market fundamentals remain robust. Investors are advised to monitor the MVRV Z-Score, VDII metrics, and exchange reserve trends for further confirmation of the next leg higher.

Source: [1] Volume Delta Imbalance Index (https://www.tradingview.com/script/OLThVX4r-Volume-Delta-Imbalance-Index-PhenLabs/)

[2] MVRV Z-Score | BM Pro (https://www.bitcoinmagazinepro.com/charts/mvrv-zscore/)

[3] How the Updated MVRV Z-Score Improves Bitcoin Price Predictions (https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/how-updated-mvrv-z-score-improves-bitcoin-price-predictions)

[4] Are Bitcoin Whales Preparing to Sell After Record Highs? (https://beincrypto.com/bitcoin-onchain-data-signals-profit-taking-by-whales/)

[5] Bitcoin Whales Are Back: Three Indicators Suggest A Run Toward ... (https://www.newsbtc.com/bitcoin-news/bitcoin-whales-three-indicators-suggest-130000/)

[9] Bitcoin's Next Stop $150,000 Or A Dip In Store? Here's ... (https://www.benzinga.com/crypto/cryptocurrency/25/10/48035149/bitcoins-next-stop-150000-or-a-dip-in-store-heres-what-these-analysts-see-coming)