Bitcoin News Today: Institutional Hedges and ETF Inflows Signal Bitcoin's $150K Rebound

Bitcoin's recent price correction has sparked renewed debate about its trajectory, but derivatives data and institutional activity suggest a potential rebound toward $150,000 by year-end. Despite a pullback to $124,000 following an all-time high of $126,500 in early October, key metrics indicate sustained demand and structural strength in the market. Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) Bitcoin futures open interest surged to $45.3 billion by October 3, 2025, with aggregated open interest across all exchanges reaching $220 billion by mid-September. This represents a 300% increase from May 2025 levels and underscores growing institutional confidence in Bitcoin as a hedging and speculative asset.

The narrowing premium in CME Bitcoin futures to 4.3%-the lowest since October 2023-reflects reduced institutional appetite for leveraged positions. This decline aligns with negative perpetual funding rates on offshore exchanges, signaling bearish sentiment and a shift away from cash-and-carry arbitrage strategies. Markus Thielen of 10x Research noted that spreads have fallen to 1.0% for perpetual futures and 4.3% for CME basis rates, indicating diminished hedge fund activity and speculative fervor. Padalan Capital corroborated this, highlighting a "retrenchment in speculative interest" and aggressive institutional hedging as key drivers of the basis inversion.

Meanwhile, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have become a major catalyst for market dynamics. On October 6, 2025, net inflows hit $1.21 billion-the largest single-day inflow since the ETFs' January 2024 launch. BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) dominated with $970 million, propelling its assets under management to nearly $100 billion in just 435 days. This growth has outpaced traditional ETFs like the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO), which took 2,011 days to reach $100 billion. Eric Balchunas of Bloomberg highlighted that IBIT is now BlackRock's most profitable fund, generating $244.5 million in annual revenue.

On-chain data further reinforces bullish sentiment. Exchange reserves fell to 2.4 million BTC by October 5, the lowest level since June 2019, as investors moved assets to self-custody and institutional treasuries. This reduction in available supply has amplified upward pressure, with over $14 billion in BTC exiting exchanges in two weeks. CryptoQuant analysts noted that such trends typically precede price peaks, as reduced liquidity constrains selling activity. Additionally, the MVRV Z-Score rose above 2.6, indicating widespread unrealized gains among holders, while the NVT Ratio spiked, suggesting potential overvaluation amid subdued transaction volumes.

Technical analysis supports a $150,000 target. Bitcoin broke above a falling channel on October 1, confirming a bullish breakout after a multi-week consolidation phase. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 68 and a bullish MACD crossover indicate strong momentum without overbought conditions. Analysts at 10x Research and Strategy Inc. argue that a consolidation between $123,000–$126,000 would provide a healthy base for a next leg higher. Strategy Inc.'s Bitcoin holdings, now valued at $77.4 billion, exemplify institutional conviction, with the firm planning to expand its BTC treasury amid IRS guidance exempting unrealized gains from the Corporate Alternative Minimum Tax.

Despite short-term volatility risks, the broader narrative remains intact. ETF inflows, on-chain accumulation, and institutional adoption are creating a "structural floor" for Bitcoin's price. While leverage-heavy positions could trigger corrections if the $120,000 support level fails, the alignment of derivatives, ETF, and on-chain metrics suggests a strong finish to 2025. As one analyst put it, "The floodgates are open, and Bitcoin is the dam"-a testament to its growing role in global finance.

Source: [1] Bitcoin Futures CME Historical Data - Investing.com (https://www.investing.com/crypto/bitcoin/bitcoin-futures-historical-data) [2] Options on Bitcoin Futures Quotes - CME Group (https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/cryptocurrencies/bitcoin/bitcoin.quotes.options.html) [3] Bitcoin News: BTC CME Futures Premium Slides, ... (https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/07/02/bitcoin-cme-futures-premium-slides-to-suggest-waning-institutional-appetite) [4] Bitcoin Futures Open Interest Soars Past $220 Billion, Signaling ... (https://markets.financialcontent.com/wral/article/breakingcrypto-2025-10-6-bitcoin-futures-open-interest-soars-past-220-billion-signaling-unprecedented-institutional-influx) [5] Bitcoin ETFs Post Biggest Inflow of 2025 as Uptober Heats Up (https://www.ccn.com/news/crypto/bitcoin-etf-largest-daily-inflows-2025/) [6] U.S. Bitcoin ETFs Log $1B Inflows Again, a Level That's Marked ... (https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/10/07/u-s-bitcoin-etfs-log-usd1b-inflows-again-a-level-that-s-marked-local-tops-six-times-before) [7] Bitcoin ETFs see largest daily inflows since Trump election surge ... (https://www.theblock.co/post/373631/bitcoin-etfs-largest-daily-inflows-since-trump-election-blackrock-ibit-nears-100-billion-usd-aum) [8] US Bitcoin ETFs Reach $50B Milestone - Cointribune (https://www.cointribune.com/en/bitcoin-etf-inflows-2025-record/) [9] Bitcoin ETF Inflows 2025 Smash $50 Billion Barrier (https://coinography.com/bitcoin-etf-inflows-2025-top-50-billion/) [10] Bitcoin Hits $125K as Exchange Balances Drop to Six ... (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bitcoin-hits-125k-exchange-balances-101346795.html) [11] Bitcoin Exchange Reserves Hit 5-Year Low-What Does This Signal? (https://www.tradingview.com/news/newsbtc:830afd1d1094b:0-bitcoin-exchange-reserves-hit-5-year-low-what-does-this-signal/) [12] BTC Price Prediction as Reserves Hit 6-Year Low-Is ... (https://coingape.com/markets/bitcoin-price-prediction-as-exchange-reserves-hit-6-year-low-is-150k-within-reach/)