Bitcoin News Today: Institutional Forces Prolong Crypto Bull Market Beyond Traditional Cycles

Top analysts in the cryptocurrency industry are predicting that the current bull market could extend for one to two years, according to the "Long Ultra Cycle" theory. This forecast defies traditional four-year crypto cycle timelines and attributes the elongated market phase to a fundamental shift in the drivers of crypto markets, specifically a move from Bitcoin halving events to global liquidity and central bank policy [1].

Bitcoin, which historically has followed a four-year cycle tied to its halving events, is now more closely aligned with global liquidity dynamics. Data indicates that Bitcoin mirrors global liquidity 83% of the time within a 12-month window, a stronger correlation than most other asset classes. As liquidity cycles tend to be longer than Bitcoin’s halving cycle, they stretch the market timeline, contributing to a more sustained bull run [1].

Ethereum and the broader altcoin index have yet to surpass previous highs, a contrast to the previous cycle where the altcoin index broke above its all-time high 355 days before the cycle’s end. With the current cycle already reaching 1,035 days, the delayed breakouts of Ethereum and altcoins suggest that the bull phase still has room to run. In previous cycles, the period from halving to peak has lengthened—from 367 days for the first halving to 548 days for the third. The current post-halving phase has already surpassed 511 days, with no clear signs of peaking [1].

The shift in market drivers from retail to institutional adoption is also playing a key role in extending the bull market. Earlier cycles were largely fueled by retail investors, but the current phase is being driven by factors such as traditional finance (TradFi) integration, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), stablecoin regulation, and tokenization. Institutional capital typically moves at a slower pace and in larger volumes, which leads to longer, steadier market cycles [1].

However, this extended cycle is not without its challenges. Analysts note that as Bitcoin moves closer to the volatility profile of gold, it is becoming less appealing to traders seeking high-risk, high-reward opportunities. The recent breakout of Bitcoin near $114,000 has stalled, with the price struggling to move higher and remaining just above the $107,200 support level. Despite institutional adoption and prolonged bull conditions, Bitcoin’s technical indicators suggest continued caution and a higher likelihood of consolidation before a potential upward breakout [1].

The "Long Ultra Cycle" theory provides a framework for understanding the current market environment, but it also underscores the evolving nature of crypto markets. As global liquidity, institutional participation, and regulatory developments continue to shape the industry, market participants must remain adaptable to the shifting dynamics [1].

Source: [1] The "Long Ultra Cycle": Why This Crypto Bull Run is Different (https://coinedition.com/long-ultra-cycle-theory-why-this-crypto-bull-run-is-different/)