Bitcoin News Today: Institutional ETF Push Propels Bitcoin Toward $150k Target

Bitcoin's price trajectory has drawn renewed attention as analysts highlight the cryptocurrency's consolidation near a critical value zone around $123,000, with implications for a potential end-of-year rally toward $150,000. Recent market dynamics indicate a stabilization phase following an 8% leverage flush in futures markets, which saw Bitcoin (BTC) rebound from $120,000 with strong spot buying interest. According to on-chain data from Binance, cumulative volume delta (CVD) around $120,000 surged, signaling renewed demand. Perpetual futures markets also reflected clustering bids near this level, while open interest declined by 7.9% at major exchanges like Binance, suggesting short positions were being closed as prices stabilized.

The consolidation aligns with broader on-chain metrics. Short-term holders exhibited a near 50/50 split between profit and loss realizations, with 24,100 BTC sent to exchanges at a profit versus 19,700 BTC at a loss. Meanwhile, the MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) ratio, a key indicator of undervaluation, suggests a 15% to 25% upside potential, targeting $140,000–$150,000 by Q4 2025. Market strategist Timo Oinonen of CryptoQuant noted that this ratio historically correlates with bullish cycles, such as the 2021 rally, where MVRV exceeding 4.0 preceded a surge to $65,000. A more aggressive scenario, mirroring 2021's metrics, could push BTC toward $170,000–$200,000.

Institutional developments further bolster the case for upward momentum. Morgan Stanley, managing over $1.5 trillion in assets, plans to launch spot Bitcoin trading via its ETrade platform in 2025, expanding retail access to crypto. This move, coupled with the recent approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs, could drive sustained inflows. ETF-related activity in late September and early October demonstrated this trend, with net creations totaling $676 million on Oct. 1 and $627 million on Oct. 2, reversing prior outflows. Futures and options markets also showed heightened activity, with open interest rising from $77.22 billion to $88.52 billion in four days, signaling increased risk-taking by longs.

Technical indicators reinforce the bullish setup. Bitcoin's price broke above $120,000 in early October, a level not seen since mid-August, supported by a narrowing spot-futures basis and positive funding rates. Perpetual futures funding flipped to positive territory in late September, peaking at +0.79% on Oct. 2, as longs paid higher premiums to maintain leverage. Analysts warn, however, that sustained upside depends on ETF inflows remaining robust and funding rates staying orderly. If creations stall while funding climbs, leveraged positions could face a "tax" on longs, increasing vulnerability to mean reversion.

Market structure analysis underscores the importance of monitoring three key metrics: ETF net creations, the spot-futures basis, and options positioning. Current data suggests constructive momentum, with price reclaiming $120,000 amid back-to-back ETF inflows and options open interest thickening around $120,000–$122,000. However, volatility could resurge if funding rates spike while ETF flows wane, leading to choppier price action.

The path to $150,000 remains contingent on macroeconomic factors, including the U.S. Federal Reserve's policy stance and the resolution of the government shutdown, which has paused ETF reviews. Traders are closely watching the CME gap at $110,000 as a potential support level, with optimism growing that Bitcoin could lock in a floor above this threshold.

Source: [1] Cointelegraph (https://cointelegraph.com/news/dollar150k-bitcoin-price-likely-after-btc-anchors-to-a-high-value-area-analyst)

[2] The Coin Republic (https://www.thecoinrepublic.com/2025/05/04/will-bitcoin-price-hit-150k-by-q4-2025-if-parabolic-trend-recovers/)

[6] Coindesk (https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/10/02/dnp-bitcoin-breaks-usd120k-with-traders-eyeing-bullish-october-rally)

[7] Cryptoslate (https://cryptoslate.com/bitcoin-above-120k-heres-3-data-points-bulls-must-watch-next/)