Bitcoin News Today: Institutional Demand Fuels Bitcoin's $123K Surge, Eyeing $200K by Year-End

Bitcoin's price surged to $123,000 on October 4, 2025, driven by Standard Chartered's bullish forecast of $135,000 in the near term and $200,000 by year-end, citing robust ETF inflows and macroeconomic tailwinds . The bank's Global Head of Digital Assets Research, Geoff Kendrick, highlighted a shift in Bitcoin's post-halving trajectory, noting that institutional flows and U.S. fiscal dynamics are now stronger than in previous cycles. Net Bitcoin ETF inflows reached $58 billion this year, with $23 billion added in 2025 alone, and an additional $20 billion projected before December . This pace, if sustained, could validate the $200,000 year-end target.

Technical analysis underscores Bitcoin's breakout from a $107,000–$111,000 base, with price testing the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement at $120,853. A close above this level could push Bitcoin toward $124,500 and $128,000. On-chain data also revealed $248 million in outflows on October 3, suggesting traders are moving coins to custody, which historically amplifies rallies when demand persists . Meanwhile, the daily RSI at 67 indicates strong momentum but nearing overbought conditions, with a potential pullback to $117,000 if the price fails to sustain above $121,000.

Standard Chartered's analysis emphasizes the interplay between Bitcoin and U.S. government risk dynamics. Kendrick noted that Bitcoin's recent correlation with Treasury term premiums-rising as policy uncertainty increases-has amplified its appeal as a macro hedge. This contrasts with prior cycles, where government shutdowns in 2018–2019 had limited impact due to smaller markets and absent ETFs . In 2025, however, investors are leveraging Bitcoin alongside gold and long-duration assets to express views on Washington's fiscal gridlock. Conversely, macro risks such as inflation spikes, tariff escalations, or equity sell-offs could reverse Bitcoin's trajectory, as seen in March 2025 when it fell to a four-month low despite pro-crypto rhetoric .

The bank also attributes Bitcoin's resilience to structural changes in demand channels. Spot ETFs and corporate treasury buying have normalized institutional participation, creating a broader and stickier investor base than in past cycles dominated by levered retail activity . Non-BlackRock treasury buyers added 56,000 BTC in Q2 2025, nearing Michael Saylor's 69,000 BTC accumulation, despite his slowed pace. This diversification of demand suggests that Bitcoin's price cadence is now driven by institutional flows rather than cyclical supply narratives tied to halvings .

Market liquidity and positioning further support the bullish case. Over the past eight hours, Bitcoin traded within a $2,000 band, with buyers defending $119,000 and sellers capping $121,000. Prediction markets on Myriad now assign roughly even odds that Bitcoin will hold above $120,000 by mid-October, up from earlier levels . Realized volatility is rising, typically attracting trend-following flows. However, risks remain: a hotter-than-expected inflation report, a prolonged government shutdown, or a sharp equity sell-off could derail the $135,000 target by shifting capital to safer assets .

Standard Chartered's timeline hinges on three policy levers: a potential early announcement of a new Fed Chair under Trump, continued 10-year Treasury term premium increases, and passage of the bipartisan GENIUS stablecoin bill . These factors could broaden regulated dollar-token adoption, funneling retail capital into Bitcoin. Additionally, sovereign buying hinted at in 13F filings-expected to expand in August-could further prop prices. If ETF inflows and treasury demand absorb supply, the 18-month post-halving slump observed in prior cycles may not materialize this time .

[1] Bitcoin Rockets To $123,000 As Standard Chartered Forecasts $135,000 Target (https://www.benzinga.com/crypto/cryptocurrency/25/10/48022523/bitcoin-rockets-to-123000-as-standard-chartered-forecasts-135000-target)

[2] Standard Chartered says Bitcoin BTC could hit $135K (https://nai500.com/blog/2025/10/standard-chartered-says-bitcoin-btc-could-hit-135k/)

[4] Standard Chartered reaffirms $200K year-end bitcoin ... (https://www.theblock.co/post/360731/standard-chartered-corporate-bicoin)