Bitcoin News Today: Institutional Confidence vs. Retail Exodus: Bitcoin's Year-End Survival Test

Bitcoin Remains Above $90,000 as Retail Selling Deepens, Year-End Risks Spur Downside Hedging

Bitcoin (BTC) has held above $90,000 amid a surge in retail selling and institutional hedging, with market participants bracing for potential volatility as year-end uncertainties loom. The cryptocurrency's price stabilized near $91,300 as of late November 2025, according to The Block, despite a 25% drawdown from its October peak of $126,000. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have faced significant outflows, with over $2.6 billion redeemed since late October, marking the worst three-week performance for the funds since their January 2024 launch.

The outflows reflect a broader de-risking trend as investors shift capital to cash, bonds, and gold following the resolution of the U.S. government shutdown and waning expectations of a December Federal Reserve rate cut. Derivatives markets have amplified the selling pressure, with nearly $4 billion in long positions liquidated in recent weeks. . Meanwhile, Bitcoin whale activity has intensified, with large holders accumulating over 375,000 BTC in the past month, signaling confidence in the asset's long-term prospects.

Harvard University's Endowment has emerged as a notable player in the Bitcoin space, boosting its stake in BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) to $443 million, now its largest public equity holding. This move contrasts with other institutional investors, such as Wisconsin's Investment Board, which liquidated its entire $300 million IBIT position earlier this year. Despite the recent price decline, IBIT remains the largest spot Bitcoin ETF, managing $75 billion in assets.

Market sentiment indicators further underscore the bearish momentum. The Bitcoin options market now assigns a 50% probability that the asset will close 2025 below $90,000, with defensive positioning evident in rising demand for downside protection. The 30-day 25-delta put skew has worsened to -5.3%, reflecting heightened hedging activity. Additionally, open interest for BTC/USDT futures stands at $100,000, suggesting persistent bearish positioning despite stabilization in realized losses.

On-chain data reveals a stark divergence between retail and institutional behavior. Wallets holding 1,000 BTC or more have risen to a four-month high of 1,384, while small-holdings accounts (1 BTC or less) have dropped to an annual low of 977,420. This pattern mirrors historical trends where whales accumulate during downturns, while smaller investors exit amid fear. BRN Research notes that over 31,800 BTC were recently moved to exchanges at a loss, highlighting the retail capitulation phase.

Despite the near-term turbulence, analysts argue the market structure remains intact. 21Shares' latest cycle update characterizes the current phase as a short-term reset rather than a full-cycle breakdown, citing improved global liquidity post-government shutdown and institutional absorption of Bitcoin and Ethereum. The firm projects a potential rebound if BTC regains $100,000, with key support levels identified at $98,000 and $85,000.

The coming weeks will test whether institutional confidence can stabilize the market or if fear-driven selling persists. As derivatives leverage normalizes and whale accumulation continues, the path for Bitcoin hinges on macroeconomic clarity and the ability of long-term holders to anchor prices amid year-end uncertainties.