Bitcoin News Today: Institutional Calm Amid Short-Term Chaos as Bitcoin Holds at $115K

Bitcoin’s short-term holder spent output profit ratio (STH-SOPR) has dropped below 1 as of August 2025, signaling that short-term investors are once again selling their holdings at a loss. This development aligns with historical patterns, where sustained STH-SOPR readings below 1 often precede deeper corrections or serve as a reset before a renewed bullish phase. The STH-SOPR had been above 1 for most of 2024, reflecting strong profit-taking as Bitcoin surged past $70,000. However, the recent decline suggests increased pressure on shorter-term investors, who are now offloading assets at a discount, potentially indicating weakening momentum in the market [2].

The broader market environment reflects a tug-of-war between speculative leverage and institutional accumulation. On one side, speculative activity remains elevated, with open interest across exchanges rising past $40 billion, near all-time highs. Positive funding rates also indicate a strong long bias, as traders and institutional players are increasingly betting on further price appreciation. However, this heavy positioning toward the long side introduces fragility, as a modest downward move could trigger a cascade of forced liquidations, resulting in sharp, short-term corrections. Such volatility has become a recurring feature when speculative positioning outpaces fundamental market depth [1].

On the other hand, long-term accumulation by institutional investors continues to provide a stabilizing force. ETFs and corporate treasuries have quietly accumulated more than 1.3 million BTC since the beginning of the year. These inflows are less sensitive to short-term price swings and reflect growing acceptance of Bitcoin as a strategic asset class. Unlike speculative flows, which can drive sharp, temporary corrections, institutional buying tends to support a more durable price structure over time [1].

The recent drop in STH-SOPR also coincides with Bitcoin’s consolidation near $115,000, a key support level. The 50-day moving average currently sits at approximately $115,900, and a decisive break below this threshold could open the door for further downward movement toward the 100-day and 200-day moving averages. Conversely, a rebound above this level may indicate that the market is absorbing the current wave of loss-selling without significant deterioration in buyer sentiment. Traders are closely watching whether this consolidation phase will result in a healthy reset or signal the start of a more prolonged correction [2].

Historically, periods where STH-SOPR dips below 1 have carried dual implications. On the bearish side, extended loss realization by short-term holders often precedes deeper corrections, as weaker hands exit under pressure. On the bullish side, brief dips can act as a reset, flushing out speculative buyers and setting the stage for a more sustainable rally. The current market is still navigating this uncertainty, with on-chain data showing orderly profit realization rather than panic selling. The realized cap has risen steadily, with most turnover driven by coins younger than three months, indicating that the market remains dominated by recent buyers rather than long-term holders [3].

Looking ahead, the focus will be on whether STH-SOPR can maintain its delicate balance above 1 or if a sustained move below this level will confirm a shift in momentum. A decisive drop could accelerate a bearish trend, while stability or a rebound above 1 would signal continued healthy rotation within the active float. Institutional buying appears to remain intact, while speculative positioning remains fragile. The coming weeks will be critical in determining whether this correction phase represents a temporary setback or a more significant shift in market dynamics [3].

Source:

[1] Mitrade Insights (https://www.mitrade.com/insights/news/live-news/article-3-1052333-20250820)

[2] CryptoPotato (https://cryptopotato.com/sopr-flat-leverage-spikes-will-bitcoin-explode-or-get-crushed/)

[3] CryptoSlate (https://cryptoslate.com/bitcoin-sopr-shows-consistent-profit-realization-despite-price-pullback/)