Bitcoin News Today: Institutional Buying Drives Bitcoin's Rally as Fed Policy Sparks Bullish and Bearish Bets

Bitcoin Faces Headwinds as Fed Policy and Market Volatility Shape Outlook

Bitcoin's price trajectory remains under scrutiny as the Federal Reserve prepares to deliver its latest interest rate decision, with analysts split on whether the move will catalyze a rally or deepen short-term volatility. The cryptocurrency, currently trading near $114,000, has seen a surge in leveraged positions, with open interest reaching $37.6 billion ahead of the Fed's October 29 meeting, according to an Unchained Crypto report. Markets are pricing in a 96.7% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut, which could bolster risk assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum, according to a TradingView price prediction. However, critics such as Peter Schiff, economist and CEO of Euro Pacific Capital, argue that Bitcoin remains a speculative bubble, dismissing it as "fool's gold" rather than a legitimate store of value.

The Fed's anticipated policy shift has already triggered a psychological recovery for Bitcoin, which has rebounded from a mid-October dip below $104,000. Institutional flows have played a pivotal role, with spot Bitcoin ETFs attracting $3.5 billion in inflows this month alone, according to an Investing.com analysis. This surge in demand has pushed institutional holdings to 12% of the total Bitcoin supply, a historic high. Analysts attribute the rally to a combination of easing inflation, geopolitical de-escalation between the U.S. and China, and the Fed's pivot toward accommodative monetary policy, the Investing.com analysis notes.

Price predictions remain divided. A "buy the dip" narrative dominates among bulls, with some forecasting a push toward $120,000 if the Fed signals further rate cuts, per TradingView. Scenario analyses highlight two potential paths: a short-term correction toward $104,000 if the Fed adopts a hawkish stance, or a renewed rally if dovish signals prevail, the TradingView analysis suggests. Meanwhile, BlackRock's Larry Fink has labeled Bitcoin and gold "assets of fear," reflecting investor flight to perceived safe havens amid macroeconomic uncertainty, according to a Decrypt report.

The Fed's decision to halt its three-year Quantitative Tightening (QT) program and reinvest maturing debt into short-term Treasury bills has added another layer of complexity. While this move aims to inject liquidity into financial markets, historical precedents—such as the 35% Bitcoin drop following the 2019 QT end—have raised caution, according to a Cointelegraph analysis. Technical analysts warn of a potential bearish MACD crossover, a pattern that preceded a 69% market correction in 2021-2022.

Contrasting the bearish outlook, high-profile figures like MicroStrategy's Michael Saylor and financial author Robert Kiyosaki remain bullish. Saylor predicts Bitcoin will reach $150,000 by year-end, with a long-term target of $1 million per coin, according to an INKL article. Kiyosaki, emphasizing Bitcoin's scarcity, forecasts a price near $200,000 by Christmas, the INKL article reports. Their optimism is underpinned by growing institutional adoption and a narrative framing Bitcoin as a hedge against fiat currency devaluation, the Investing.com analysis adds.

Beyond price action, the crypto industry is evolving. Companies like Riot Platforms are pivoting from Bitcoin mining to data center development, framing mining as a "means to an end" for securing power infrastructure, according to a Benzinga report. This strategic shift reflects broader trends as Bitcoin miners explore diversification into AI and high-performance computing, a separate Cointelegraph report notes.

As the Fed's policy outcome looms, Bitcoin's path hinges on balancing macroeconomic signals, institutional momentum, and market sentiment. With leverage-driven volatility and divergent expert opinions, the coming weeks will test whether the cryptocurrency can consolidate its gains or face a deeper retracement.