Bitcoin News Today: Institutional Bets Fuel Bitcoin Hopes Amid Prediction Markets' 2025 Caution

Six-Figure Bitcoin Could Return, Yet Prediction Markets Expect a Tempered 2025 Close

Bitcoin's path to reclaiming six-figure territory has reignited optimism among investors, though prediction markets and market analysts suggest a more cautious outlook for 2025. Institutional adoption, macroeconomic shifts, and emerging prediction platforms are shaping the narrative, even as volatility and bearish sentiment persist.

Harvard University's endowment has placed a $443 million bet on Bitcoin through BlackRock's IBIT exchange-traded fund, marking a rare institutional foray into crypto. This move underscores growing confidence in Bitcoin's long-term value, particularly as the asset's market share of global wealth remains historically low. Meanwhile, analyst Tom Lee has argued that 2025 could see increased selling ahead of the 2026 halving cycle, potentially creating a buying opportunity for 2026. Lee's thesis hinges on the idea that pre-2026 bearish activity might drive prices lower in the short term, setting the stage for a rebound.

Prediction markets, however, paint a less bullish picture for 2025. Platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket have seen surging volumes as traders bet on macroeconomic outcomes, including Federal Reserve rate decisions. Coinbase, which recently partnered with Kalshi, is reportedly developing its own prediction market website. The service, backed by Kalshi's infrastructure, aims to cover events in economics, politics, and technology, signaling a broader push to institutionalize speculative trading. Such tools could amplify market efficiency but also heighten short-term volatility as investors hedge against uncertain macro conditions.

Crypto markets have already faced headwinds in 2025, with Bitcoin dropping below $90,000 in early November-a seven-month low. The sell-off has been attributed to profit-taking, macroeconomic uncertainty, and institutional outflows, particularly from BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF, which saw record $523 million in outflows on one day. Despite these pressures, El Salvador continued its aggressive Bitcoin accumulation, purchasing $100 million worth of BTC in a single day to bolster its national reserves. The country now holds 7,474.37 BTC, valued at approximately $680 million, defying international lender concerns and reinforcing its role as a crypto pioneer.

Market sentiment has deteriorated sharply, with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index hitting "extreme fear" levels. Bitcoin's recent "death cross" technical pattern-a bearish signal-has further spooked investors, though some analysts argue it could signal a macro bottom. Smart money traders on platforms like Nansen have added $5.7 million in short positions in the past 24 hours, reflecting widespread downside expectations.

While institutional and retail interest in Bitcoin remains robust, the path to six figures will likely require navigating near-term volatility and macroeconomic headwinds. Prediction markets, regulatory shifts, and geopolitical factors - including U.S.-China tensions - will play critical roles in shaping outcomes. For now, the market's focus remains on whether Bitcoin can stabilize above $100,000 and whether 2025's tempered close will pave the way for a stronger 2026 rally.