Bitcoin News Today: Institutional Bets Clash as Bitcoin's Fate Hangs in Balance

Peter Schiff, a well-known critic of Bitcoin (BTC), has issued a bearish outlook for the cryptocurrency, predicting a potential crash to as low as $75,000. His comments came after Bitcoin dipped below $109,000, marking a 13% decline from its recent peak less than two weeks prior. In a post on X, Schiff emphasized that the current performance of BTC raises concerns despite the continued institutional buying activity, including a recent purchase by Strategy, a business intelligence firm, adding 3,081 BTC to its portfolio. This brought the firm's total holdings to 632,450 BTC. Despite the large-scale acquisitions, Schiff argued that these moves have not been sufficient to support the price of Bitcoin, and he urged investors to consider selling their positions now and re-entering when the price drops to $75,000 [1].

On the other hand, Franklin Templeton's deputy chief investment officer, Max Gokhman, has taken a more optimistic stance. He noted that the increasing interest in Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs is a long-term trend driven by institutional investors. Gokhman highlighted that nearly 89% of Bitcoin transactions over $100,000 on exchanges are attributed to institutional players, underscoring the growing role of institutional capital in the market. He views ETFs as a gateway for investors who may not wish to handle custody themselves, suggesting that incorporating Ethereum into portfolios could lead to more diversified holdings in digital assets. While Gokhman did not provide specific price targets for Bitcoin or Ethereum, he emphasized that institutionalization is gradually reshaping the market, with increased demand and reduced volatility expected to support higher prices [2].

The market dynamics have also been influenced by the approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs in January 2024, which marked a significant shift in the cryptocurrency’s trajectory. BlackRock’s IBIT and Fidelity’s FBTC have collectively absorbed hundreds of thousands of Bitcoin, creating a supply shock that has fundamentally altered the market structure. Unlike previous cycles driven by retail investor sentiment, this rally is being powered by a more strategic and long-term approach from institutional investors. For instance, Grayscale’s GBTC, even with outflows, has continued to absorb Bitcoin supply, creating a stable floor for the price. This kind of “sticky” demand is a novel feature in the current cycle, contrasting with the emotional buying and selling patterns that characterized earlier bull runs [3].

On-chain data also provides insights into the behavior of long-term holders (LTHs), who are often seen as the “smart money” in the Bitcoin ecosystem. According to Glassnode, LTHs have realized more profit this cycle than in all but one previous cycle. The cumulative realized profit currently stands at 3.27 million BTC, approaching the 3.93 million BTC peak from the 2017 market top. This elevated sell-side pressure suggests that the market may be entering a distribution phase, a pattern observed in historical cycles before major corrections. Additionally, Bitcoin has spent 273 days with a super-majority of its supply in profit, the second-longest stretch on record. This widespread profitability, while demonstrating market strength, also represents a potential source of significant selling pressure [3].

Looking ahead, Diaman Partners has attempted to estimate potential support levels for Bitcoin in the next cycle. Using a Monte Carlo simulation, the firm found that Bitcoin has a 5% probability of falling below $41,000 in December 2026. However, if the price continues to rise and then declines by 2026, the support level for the cycle low could be over $80,000. The firm also noted that historical drawdowns have decreased in intensity, and a -69% drop could be plausible if Bitcoin reaches a peak of $260,000 by 2025. While these projections are based on models and not investment advice, they highlight the complexity of predicting Bitcoin’s future price movements [4].

Source: [1] Peter Schiff Delivers Fatal $75000 Bitcoin Price Prediction (https://u.today/peter-schiff-delivers-fatal-75000-bitcoin-price-prediction) [2] Franklin Templeton exec has one word response to shocking ... (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/franklin-templeton-exec-one-word-204500250.html) [3] Is Bitcoin Top In? Why This Institutional-Led Rally Is Different (https://coinpaper.com/10738/is-bitcoin-top-in-why-this-institutional-led-rally-is-different) [4] Estimating Bitcoin's support levels for the next cycle bottom (https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-s-future-bear-market-bottom-could-be-dollar60k-data)