Bitcoin News Today: Institutional Bet: Bitcoin’s $180K Fate Hinged on Summer Moves

VanEck continues to assert its bullish stance on Bitcoin, maintaining an end-of-year price target of $180,000 despite recent fluctuations in the market. According to VanEck's Mid-August 2025 Bitcoin ChainCheck, Bitcoin (BTC) reached an all-time high of $124,000 in early August, reflecting renewed speculative demand and a surge in the CME basis funding rate to 9%, the highest since February 2025. Exchange-traded products (ETPs) and Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs) played a significant role in this upward momentum, adding 54,000 BTC and 72,000 BTC respectively to the market in July. These figures highlight the continued institutional interest in Bitcoin, despite growing volatility in the broader digital asset market.

On-chain metrics also show mixed trends. Bitcoin's dominance in the cryptocurrency market fell from 64.5% in early July to 59.7% by mid-August, as Ethereum gained market share. Network transactions increased by 26% month-over-month to 12.9 million, the highest since November 2024, but median fees declined 13% to 421 sats, partly due to reduced activity in ordinal inscriptions. This suggests that while the Bitcoin network is experiencing increased transaction volume, the cost of using it has stabilized or decreased, potentially supporting further adoption.

Derivatives and volatility markets reflect a strong bullish outlook. The call/put ratio for Bitcoin options rose to 3.21x, the highest since June 2024, with $792 million spent on call premiums in a month. Implied volatility, however, fell to 32%, well below the 50% one-year average, compressing option prices. A +25% out-of-the-money (OTM) one-year call now costs approximately 6% of spot value, down from 18% in late 2024. Over the past 30 days, total option premiums reached $1.1 billion, raising the possibility of a volatility spike as investors return from summer breaks. These figures underscore the market's expectation of a strong upward move in Bitcoin’s price, although the current low volatility regime suggests caution in near-term positioning.

The Bitcoin mining sector also showed signs of growth and diversification. The global hashrate reached a record 902 exahashes per second (EH/s) in August, a 47% increase year-over-year. Revenue per exahash/second rose to $59.4K, the highest since December 2024. Hive Digital expanded to 14 EH/s, Cleanspark exceeded 50 EH/s, and CIFR’s Black Pearl hit 3.4 EH/s. Equity performance varied, with APLD rising 54% on strong earnings and a CoreWeave expansion, while CIFR fell 22% amid cost and AI/HPC uncertainties. Excluding APLD, the 13-miner equity index declined 4%, even as BTC and the S&P 500 rose 2%. TeraWulf (WULF) also secured a partnership with Fluidstack, backed by Google, to host 200 MW of AI load, signaling a strategic pivot toward AI-linked mining infrastructure. U.S.-listed miners now control 31.5% of the global Bitcoin hashrate, up from 29% earlier this year, highlighting the accelerating consolidation and scale advantages in the industry.

Institutional flows and Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs) indicate mixed performance. Public BTC treasuries now hold 951K BTC, with MicroStrategy (MSTR) trading at 1.63x the value of its BTC holdings, inspiring a new wave of DAT entrants. However, mNAV values for MSTR, MTPLF, and SMLR fell in July, reflecting challenges in capital raising due to muted volatility. The mNAV compression was particularly evident among DATs, with Metaplanet maintaining a higher mNAV due to its tax, regulatory, and financial advantages. These trends suggest that while DATs remain attractive in theory, their performance is highly dependent on market conditions and volatility.

Looking ahead, several risks and opportunities emerge as autumn approaches. Large outstanding options positions increase the potential for amplified price swings via dealer hedging, even with modest volatility. For DATs, a prolonged low-volatility regime may limit capital-raising ability, driving further mNAV compression. In mining, performance dispersion is expected to be driven by operational execution and integration of AI/HPC workloads. Macroeconomic developments and seasonal investor re-engagement could either extend Bitcoin’s momentum or prompt profit-taking. Despite these uncertainties, VanEck remains committed to its $180K BTC price target for year-end, a figure supported by strong bullish positioning in derivatives and continued institutional adoption.

Source:

[1] VanEck Mid-August 2025 Bitcoin ChainCheck (https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/blogs/digital-assets/matthew-sigel-vaneck-mid-august-2025-bitcoin-chaincheck/)

[2] Bitcoin Mining Profitability Rose 2% in July Amid BTC Price ... (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bitcoin-mining-profitability-rose-2-180000230.html)

[3] Solo Bitcoin Miner Beats the Odds, Scoring $365K BTC Jackpot (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/solo-bitcoin-miner-beats-odds-200204160.html)

[4] Put-Call Ratio (Open Interest) (20-Day) (https://www.alphaquery.com/stock/BITO/volatility-option-statistics/20-day/put-call-ratio-oi)

[5] Was the Bitcoin price bottom $114.7K?: Data suggests it's ... (https://cointelegraph.com/news/was-the-bitcoin-price-bottom-dollar114-7k-data-suggests-it-s-time-for-a-reversal)