Bitcoin News Today: Institutional Anchors Power Bitcoin's $150K Ascent as Exchange Reserves Hit 5-Year Low

Bitcoin's price has retested key support levels, with technical indicators and on-chain data suggesting renewed bullish momentum as the market anticipates a potential surge toward $150,000. Recent analysis highlights institutional adoption, shrinking exchange reserves, and evolving investor behavior as critical drivers of the cryptocurrency's trajectory.

Over 34.7% of Bitcoin's circulating supply now has a cost basis exceeding $75,000, with 11.5% acquired above $110,000, reflecting deep institutional and long-term investor participation The Bitcoin Checkpoint Report^[1]. This clustering, representing 70% of Bitcoin's stored value, underscores a shift from retail-driven volatility to capital anchored by strategic holders. Institutional demand has further tightened liquidity, with exchange reserves falling to a five-year low of 2.38 million BTC XT Blog^[8]. Reduced on-exchange supply has historically preceded price surges, as demand outpaces available selling pressure.

Short-term holder (STH) cost basis data, a key on-chain metric, suggests Bitcoin is poised to test $117,000 as a near-term target Cointelegraph^[3]. The STH cost basis, which tracks the average purchase price of coins moved within 155 days, currently sits at $117,113, forming an upper boundary for price action. Analysts note that a breakout above $109,000–$110,000 could trigger a move toward $130,000 Cointelegraph^[3]. Additionally, Bitcoin's 20-week simple moving average (SMA) at $100,550 and 21-week exponential moving average (EMA) at $103,720 have held as dynamic support since early 2023, reinforcing a sustained bull trend .

Hedge fund founder Charles Edwards predicts a "very quick" surge to $150,000 by year-end if Bitcoin breaks above $120,000, citing institutional buying and macroeconomic factors Bitrue^[6]. Other analysts, including Jelle and Rekt Capital, highlight a bullish flag pattern on daily charts, with a $110,000 breakout potentially targeting $130,000 Cointelegraph^[3]. Meanwhile, on-chain metrics such as the MVRV ratio indicate Bitcoin remains below extreme overvaluation thresholds, with room to rise toward $123,000 before facing significant selling pressure Cointelegraph^[3].

Spot Bitcoin ETFs have driven $195.2 billion in inflows since their 2024 launch, with BlackRock's IBIT alone amassing $57 billion in assets under management XT Blog^[8]. Corporate treasury allocations, including acquisitions by firms like OranjeBTC, further validate Bitcoin's role as a strategic reserve asset XT Blog^[8]. Regulatory developments, such as the U.S. strategic Bitcoin reserve proposal, could unlock an additional $120 billion in institutional flows by year-end Cointelegraph^[7].

Despite bullish signals, volatility remains a concern. A recent 10% correction to $105,000 tested the 50-day SMA, with analysts viewing the move as a "normal and healthy" retracement . Exchange liquidations totaling $19.16 billion in October underscore the fragility of leveraged positions Coinpedia^[2]. However, long-term holder sentiment remains robust, with unrealized profits at $1.3 trillion and average gains of 230% above cost basis The Bitcoin Checkpoint Report^[1].

Bitcoin's path to $150,000 hinges on maintaining institutional inflows, avoiding overleveraged positions, and navigating macroeconomic risks. With fundamentals intact and technical indicators aligning, the cryptocurrency's multi-trillion-dollar market structure suggests a continuation of its bull cycle, though volatility and regulatory clarity will remain critical factors.