Bitcoin News Today: Institutional Adoption Redefines Bitcoin’s Market Cycle as Price Surges 10.17% on ETF Demand

Bitcoin’s traditional four-year market cycle, historically tied to block reward halvings, is being redefined as institutional adoption reshapes the cryptocurrency’s price dynamics. Analysts and industry leaders have increasingly highlighted that speculative patterns linked to halving events are losing relevance, with corporate treasuries and institutional investors now dominating Bitcoin’s price action. This shift marks a pivotal evolution in the asset’s market behavior, driven by a surge in large-scale capital inflows and regulatory clarity [1][3][6].

Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, a leading blockchain analytics firm, has publicly declared the “Bitcoin Cycle theory is dead,” emphasizing that institutional accumulation is now the primary driver of market trends [2][5]. His comments follow a period of rapid price appreciation, with Bitcoin surging over 10% in a single week amid increased participation from institutional players. Ju noted that traditional metrics, such as whale activity and halving-driven supply constraints, are no longer sufficient to explain Bitcoin’s performance. Instead, he pointed to the growing influence of institutional investment vehicles, including ETFs, and the accumulation of Bitcoin as a store of value by corporate entities [4][7].

The market’s departure from the halving cycle has been underscored by recent data showing a weakening correlation between Bitcoin’s price and its on-chain supply dynamics. For instance, despite the upcoming halving event in April 2024, Bitcoin’s price has not exhibited the same pre-halving bullish momentum observed in previous cycles. Instead, institutional demand has acted as a stabilizing force, reducing volatility typically associated with retail-driven speculation [3][6]. Analysts attribute this to broader acceptance of Bitcoin as a strategic asset, with corporations and asset managers treating it akin to gold or other macroeconomic indicators [5].

Regulatory developments have further accelerated this transition. Recent clarity on cryptocurrency custody and investment frameworks has encouraged institutional players to allocate capital to Bitcoin with greater confidence. This regulatory tailwind, combined with the rise of institutional-grade infrastructure, has created a market environment where Bitcoin’s value is increasingly decoupled from its blockchain mechanics [1][3].

Critically, the role of “whale” investors—large holders who historically dictated market sentiment—has also diminished in significance. Ju observed that institutional investors now exhibit a more passive accumulation strategy, prioritizing long-term portfolio diversification over short-term trading. This contrasts with the cyclical buying and selling patterns seen in earlier bull runs, where retail traders and speculative funds dominated price action [2][7].

While the long-term implications of this shift remain uncertain, the consensus among market participants is that Bitcoin has entered a new phase of maturation. The asset’s ability to attract sustained institutional interest, rather than relying on predictable halving cycles, suggests a more stable and liquid market. However, this transition also raises questions about the role of traditional on-chain metrics in forecasting price trends, as institutional behavior becomes increasingly opaque [4][6].

Sources:

[1] [Bitcoin No Longer Follows Halving-Driven Market Cycles] (https://coincentral.com/cryptoquant-bitcoin-no-longer-follows-halving-driven-market-cycles/)

[2] [“Bitcoin Cycle Theory Is Dead” – Crypto CEO Apologizes ...] (https://bitcoinist.com/bitcoin-cycle-theory-is-dead-crypto-ceo-apologizes-for-bearish-misfire/)

[3] [Bitcoin Surges 10.17% on Institutional Adoption ...] (https://www.ainvest.com/news/bitcoin-news-today-bitcoin-surges-10-17-institutional-adoption-regulatory-clarity-halving-cycle-influence-wanes-2507/)

[4] [Why Ki Young Ju Say “Bitcoin Cycle Theory Is Dead”] (https://m.fastbull.com/news-detail/why-ki-young-ju-say-bitcoin-cycle-theory-news_6100_0_2025_3_4861_3/6100_LTC-USDT)

[5] [“Bitcoin Cycle Theory Is Dead” – Crypto CEO Apologizes ...] (https://www.mitrade.com/insights/news/live-news/article-3-987758-20250725)

[6] [Bitcoin's 4-Year Cycle Weakened by Institutional Adoption ...] (https://www.ainvest.com/news/bitcoin-news-today-bitcoin-4-year-cycle-weakened-institutional-adoption-ethereum-etfs-outperform-2-4b-inflows-2507/)

[7] [Volcon Invests Heavily in Bitcoin Amid Market Peaks] (https://m.economictimes.com/crypto-news-today-live-25-jul-2025/liveblog/122889124.cms)