Bitcoin News Today: Hyperliquid’s Hybrid Model Fuels Hayes’ 126x HYPE Bet

Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, made a bold prediction during the WebX 2025 conference in Tokyo, forecasting a 126x increase in the price of Hyperliquid’s native token, HYPE, over the next three years. This projection is rooted in Hayes’ belief that the decentralized exchange’s (DEX) annualized fees will surge from $1.2 billion to $258 billion as the stablecoin market expands. At the time of the conference, HYPE was trading at approximately $45.64, having gained nearly 4% in the previous 24 hours and peaking above $47 earlier in the day [1].

Hyperliquid, a leading decentralized derivatives exchange for perpetual futures, has recently seen significant growth in both volume and open interest. Total open positions on the platform reached an all-time high of 198,397, with open interest climbing above $15 billion and total wallet equity peaking at $31 billion [1]. The exchange has also recorded an all-time high in daily volume of $1.56 billion, according to DefiLlama, while transaction fees for the month reached $93 million [1]. These metrics underscore Hyperliquid’s growing influence in the derivatives market, with the DEX now capturing over 75% of the decentralized perpetual exchange market, previously dominated by dYdX [1].

The launch of a 3x WLFI-USD perpetual contract on August 23 further fueled speculation and liquidity on the platform. This contract allowed traders to gain leveraged exposure to WLFI ahead of its token generation event (TGE) on September 1. The product attracted record trading volumes, with Hyperliquid processing $29 billion in 24 hours, and it became a focal point for institutional capital [6]. The contract’s structure enabled traders to hold positions three times the value of their collateral, contributing to a surge in trading activity and revenue for Hyperliquid [6]. Additionally, 97% of trading fees were allocated to token burning, directly benefiting HYPE holders [6].

Hyperliquid’s technical infrastructure has played a critical role in supporting this growth. The platform’s hybrid architecture, combining centralized exchange speed with decentralized transparency, has allowed it to handle high volumes of leveraged positions without significant slippage or downtime [6]. This resilience has attracted institutional interest, particularly as WLFI prepares for listing on major exchanges like Binance and Coinbase. Public company treasuries have also acquired $1.5 billion in HYPE tokens, and staking incentives offering up to 55% annual returns have further locked liquidity into the ecosystem [6].

The broader market dynamics also contribute to HYPE’s strong performance. As of late August 2025, the HYPE token had a market capitalization of $16.11 billion, with a fully diluted valuation (FDV) of $48.24 billion [3]. The token’s all-time high of $49.84 was reached on July 14, and it was trading close to that level at the time of Hayes’ prediction [3]. The token’s performance has been bolstered by a growing user base and increasing adoption across institutional and retail segments, with the platform now processing up to $30 billion in daily trading volume and nearing Binance-level activity on certain pairs [1].

Hayes’ forecast is based on a deflationary tokenomics model and the potential for Hyperliquid to capture 26.4% of the average daily volume (ADV) in the stablecoin market, which he projects to reach $10 trillion by 2028 [4]. Applying a 5% discount rate to the projected terminal value of HYPE’s revenue stream, Hayes calculated a potential FDV of $5.161 trillion, leading to the 126x upside estimate [4]. This forecast, while ambitious, aligns with Hyperliquid’s current trajectory, which has already seen HYPE rise over 300% since April 2025 and rank among the top 15 crypto assets by market capitalization [4].

Despite the bullish outlook, HYPE’s price remains subject to broader market conditions and macroeconomic factors. For instance, U.S. Core PCE data, a key inflation gauge for the Federal Reserve, could influence Bitcoin and, by extension, the broader crypto market [5]. Traders monitoring HYPE should also consider whale activity and on-chain metrics, as large-scale BTC-to-ETH swaps on Hyperliquid have increased liquidity and fee revenue earmarked for HYPE buybacks [5]. These developments highlight the token’s potential for both short-term volatility and long-term value accumulation.

In conclusion, Arthur Hayes’ prediction of a 126x increase in HYPE’s price reflects a combination of strong fundamentals, technical infrastructure, and market positioning. While the forecast is speculative in nature, it is grounded in Hyperliquid’s growing market share, increasing institutional adoption, and robust fee model. As the stablecoin market expands and the DEX continues to capture a significant portion of decentralized trading activity, HYPE remains a key asset to watch in the rapidly evolving DeFi landscape.

Source:

[1] Hyperliquid spikes as Arthur Hayes predicts 126x upside in ... (https://cointelegraph.com/news/hyperliquid-hype-spikes-arthur-hayes-predicts-126x-upside)

[2] Why Arthur Hayes Expects Ethereum to Surge to $20,000 (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-arthur-hayes-expects-ethereum-210103605.html)

[3] Hyperliquid Price, HYPE Price, Live Charts, and Marketcap (https://www.coinbase.com/price/hyperliquid)

[4] Arthur Hayes Gives 126x Upside Potential for Hyperliquid ... (https://coingape.com/arthur-hayes-gives-126x-upside-potential-for-hyperliquid-at-a-massive-5-trillion-fdv/)

[5] Hyperliquid HYPE Buybacks and U.S. Core PCE Data ... (https://blockchain.news/flashnews/hype-btc-catalysts-this-week-hyperliquid-hype-buybacks-and-u-s-core-pce-data-trading-outlook-and-risks)

[6] Hyperliquid's WLFI Derivatives Strategy Drives HYPE ... (https://www.fxleaders.com/news/2025/08/25/hyperliquids-wlfi-derivatives-strategy-drives-hype-token-to-4-gains-amid-pre-tge-trading-frenzy/)