Bitcoin News Today: Historical Indicators Signal Extended Bitcoin Downturn

Bitcoin's recent slide below $90,000 has intensified concerns among analysts and institutional investors, with technical indicators and market flows painting a bearish outlook. Prominent crypto analyst Tony "The Bull" Severino highlighted a critical shift in momentum, noting the 6-week LMACD-a long-term trend confirmation tool-has turned bearish for the first time in years. This signal, historically tied to extended downturns lasting hundreds of days, suggests Bitcoin could remain in a protracted bear phase according to analysis. The indicator previously flagged corrections of 69–75% in prior cycles, with bottoms forming 250–365 days after the crossover. At $85,670 as of November 20, Bitcoin's current price action aligns with those patterns, reinforcing skepticism about near-term recovery according to analysis.

The bearish narrative is further supported by ETF flows. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs ended a five-day outflow streak with $75.47 million in net inflows on November 19, but experts caution this rebound reflects defensive positioning rather than renewed optimism according to experts. BlackRock's IBIT led the inflow with $60.61 million, a stark contrast to Tuesday's record outflow of $523.15 million. Analysts like Wenny Cai of Synfutures attribute the redemptions to institutional reassessment following Bitcoin's 30% retreat from its October peak. "The outflows aren't just profit-taking-they signal a shift to risk-off strategies amid macroeconomic uncertainty and high interest rates," Cai said.

Technical indicators for altcoins also remain bearish. Ethereum (ETH) struggles to reclaim key moving averages, trading below the 200-day EMA at $3,554, while its RSI approaches oversold territory, signaling sustained selling pressure according to market analysis. XRP clings to $2.00 support, with a break below this level potentially triggering a slide to $1.90. The MACD for XRP has maintained a sell signal since early November, urging caution among investors according to market data.

Amid the volatility, institutional activity offers a counterpoint. Ark Invest added $39.6 million to crypto-related equities, including Bullish (BLSH), Circle (CRCL), and Bitmine (BMNR), as broader market declines created "bargain-hunting opportunities" according to market reports. Meanwhile, the Bitcoin Policy Institute endorsed the Bitcoin for America Act, which would allow tax payments in Bitcoin and establish a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. This policy shift, if enacted, could institutionalize Bitcoin adoption while insulating the government from dollar depreciation according to policy analysis.

Market participants are also bracing for regulatory and macroeconomic catalysts. The Federal Reserve's December rate decision looms as a key event, with uncertainty over rate cuts fueling risk-off sentiment. Prediction markets now price Bitcoin hitting $115,000 at just 35% probability, down from over 60% in early November according to market analysis.

Bitcoin's path forward hinges on stabilizing near-term support levels. A close above $90,000 could reignite buying interest, but a breakdown would expose the $85,000 zone, historically a floor during prior corrections according to technical analysis. For now, the interplay of technical deterioration, institutional caution, and macroeconomic headwinds suggests a prolonged consolidation-or further downside-is more likely than a swift rebound.