Bitcoin News Today: Hayes: TradFi's Short-Term Volatility Play Undermines Bitcoin's Four-Year Cycle

The former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes has emphasized that the emerging "Buy the Dip" narrative in traditional finance (TradFi) will increasingly overshadow the crypto market's historical "four-year cycle," which traditionally aligns with Bitcoin halving events and macroeconomic trends. Hayes argues that institutional investors, driven by risk management and liquidity strategies, will prioritize short-term volatility opportunities over long-term crypto cycles. This perspective contrasts with prior assumptions that crypto cycles are dictated by predictable on-chain events.

Hayes' analysis is rooted in macroeconomic shifts, particularly the U.S. Treasury's challenges with record debt issuance and the potential for stablecoin-driven liquidity injections. He posits that regulated stablecoins-such as those proposed by major banks like JPMorgan-could convert idle retail deposits and bank reserves into demand for short-term Treasury bills, effectively mimicking quantitative easing without direct Federal Reserve intervention. This mechanism, if realized, could inject up to $6.8 trillion in liquidity into markets, potentially spurring renewed interest in risk assets like Bitcoin. However, Hayes warns of an immediate short-term correction, forecasting Bitcoin could dip to $90,000–$95,000 before resuming an upward trajectory.

The former BitMEX co-founder has also adjusted his personal asset allocation, offloading significant portions of Ethereum and other tokens in anticipation of heightened volatility. Blockchain data reveals he moved 2,373 ETH (~$8.3 million) and 7.76 million ENA (~$4.6 million) in early August 2025, a move interpreted as a hedging strategy amid macroeconomic uncertainties. This action aligns with his earlier accurate predictions, such as his 2024 warning of a $70,000 Bitcoin correction during a bullish phase.

Hayes' bearish near-term outlook is further supported by weak Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data, which triggered widespread market repricing of interest rate expectations and intensified pressure on risk assets. He highlights the acceleration of forced liquidations and margin calls as key drivers of downward momentum, noting $172 million in Bitcoin long positions were cleared across exchanges in a 24-hour period during late July 2025. Despite this, he remains bullish on Bitcoin's long-term trajectory, reiterating a $1 million price target by 2028.

The broader crypto market has mirrored these dynamics, with Bitcoin trading at ~$109,789 as of late July 2025, while Ethereum hovered near $4,504. Hayes' predictions have sparked debate, particularly among critics like Peter Schiff, who argue Bitcoin's recent performance undermines its "digital gold" narrative. However, Hayes contends that the interplay between stablecoin innovation and macroeconomic policy will ultimately redefine market cycles, reducing reliance on crypto-specific events like halvings.

Source: [1] Arthur Hayes Forecasts Crypto Stagnation: Flat or Slight Dip (https://www.coinspeaker.com/arthur-hayes-crypto-sideways-prediction/) [2] Hayes Unleashes Bearish Warning: Crypto Market Braces for Impact (https://elevenews.com/2025/08/02/crypto-maverick-arthur-hayes-braces-for-market-slump-predicts-bitcoins-100k-retest/)