Bitcoin News Today: Hayes: Fed's Liquidity Shift, Not Rate Cuts, Could Fuel Bitcoin's Recovery

Bitcoin's recent slide to a seven-month low near $80,000 may have marked the bottom, according to Arthur Hayes, the former CEO of cryptocurrency derivatives exchange BitMEX. Hayes, a prominent figure in the crypto industry, argues that the U.S. Federal Reserve's impending end to quantitative tightening (QT) will inject liquidity into markets, providing a tailwind for Bitcoin and other risk assets. His comments come amid a turbulent period for the crypto market, with Bitcoin ETFs experiencing record outflows and prices struggling to regain momentum after a sharp correction.

Hayes emphasized that the Fed's balance sheet is set to stop shrinking, a shift that could signal the start of a liquidity-driven recovery for cryptocurrencies. "Minor improvements in $ liq," he wrote on X, noting that the Fed's decision to halt QT-scheduled for December 1-would ease selling pressure and stabilize Bitcoin's price. He reiterated that Bitcoin's recovery does not hinge on additional rate cuts but rather on the return of quantitative easing (QE), which he believes could drive the asset to new all-time highs. "The quantity of credit is more important than the price," Hayes said, referencing Bitcoin's previous rally from $16,000 to $100,000 amid higher interest rates. According to Hayes's analysis, the market may be approaching a critical support level.

The market's recent volatility has been exacerbated by massive outflows from Bitcoin ETFs, which have lost over $3.79 billion in November-the worst month on record. BlackRock's IBIT alone accounted for 63% of these outflows, with $2.47 billion in redemptions. The exodus has pushed Bitcoin's price below $84,000, its lowest level since April 2025, as investors fled amid uncertainty over the Fed's policy path. Cointelegraph reports that ETF outflows have created a self-reinforcing cycle: falling prices trigger more redemptions, which further depress the market. Bloomberg estimates that every $1 billion in outflows correlates with a 3.4% drop in Bitcoin's price.

Despite the near-term pessimism, Hayes remains bullish on Bitcoin's long-term trajectory. He anticipates a potential rebound as liquidity conditions improve, though he cautioned that the market may see one last dip into the low $80,000 range before stabilizing. "We chop below $90k, maybe one more stab down into low $80k's but I think $80k holds," he wrote. His optimism is echoed by some analysts, who point to Bitcoin's historical resilience during periods of macroeconomic stress. According to TradingView analysis, Hayes's prediction that $80,000 is a critical support level has gained traction among traders.

The Fed's policy uncertainty, however, remains a wildcard. Recent shifts in expectations for a December rate cut have traders slashing odds from near-certainty to just 33%, following delays in key employment data. With the October jobs report canceled and the November data delayed until after the Fed's December meeting, policymakers will be operating with outdated information, complicating their decision-making. Coindesk reports that this ambiguity has added to market jitters, with Bitcoin's price swinging sharply on news of regulatory changes and geopolitical developments.

As the crypto market navigates these headwinds, Hayes's prediction that $80,000 is a critical support level has gained traction among traders. The former BitMEX CEO's track record of calling major Bitcoin moves-such as the 2017 and 2020 bull runs-lends credibility to his current stance. If liquidity conditions improve as expected, the path for Bitcoin to test $100,000 again could open by early 2026. For now, investors are bracing for a volatile holiday season, with the Fed's next move and ETF flows likely to dictate the immediate direction of the market. According to TradingView analysis, Hayes's prediction that $80,000 is a critical support level has gained traction among traders.