Bitcoin News Today: Harvard Economist Admits Underestimating Bitcoin’s Illicit Power Floor

Bitcoin currently faces a pivotal juncture as the price of the leading cryptocurrency hesitates near $113,000, while futures markets exhibit relative strength. Harvard economics professor Kenneth Rogoff recently revisited his 2018 prediction that Bitcoin would be worth $100 rather than $100,000 in a decade. While his forecast did not align with the actual price movement—Bitcoin has exceeded $100,000—Rogoff has acknowledged his underestimation of Bitcoin's role in the global underground economy. He emphasized that the use of cryptocurrencies as a medium of exchange in illicit activities provides a fundamental floor to the price of BTC [1].

Bitcoin's price movement has been closely watched by traders, particularly ahead of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. The event has historically been a significant driver for market sentiment across asset classes, including cryptocurrencies. As of early August 2025, Bitcoin has experienced a two-day decline, dipping slightly below $113,600, and remains well under its recent record high of over $124,000. The cryptocurrency faces pressure from macroeconomic uncertainties and the US dollar's strength in anticipation of Powell’s remarks [2].

Market analysts have pointed to potential manipulation as a factor in Bitcoin’s recent price weakness. Observers noted unusual liquidity patterns in the order book, with significant bid liquidity being taken at lower price points. Some traders speculated that entities referred to as "Spoofy the Whale" and "Notorious B.I.D." might be influencing price action. Additionally, the presence of liquidity clusters around the $120,000 and $112,000 levels suggests the possibility of local reversal zones [3].

The broader cryptocurrency market has also felt the ripple effects of Bitcoin’s volatility. Ether (ETH) and other major tokens have seen mixed performances, with some altcoins experiencing significant price swings. The market’s overall sentiment is influenced by the expectation of a potential Federal Reserve rate cut, which could impact risk assets. Current market pricing reflects an 80–95% probability of a 25-basis-point cut at the September meeting [3].

Looking beyond short-term volatility, developments in tokenisation are gaining traction in the digital asset space. SkyBridge Capital, an investment firm led by Anthony Scaramucci, has announced plans to tokenise two of its hedge funds, potentially expanding access to exclusive investment products. This strategic shift reflects broader institutional interest in leveraging blockchain technology for traditional financial instruments [2].

Bitcoin’s path remains uncertain as it contends with both internal and external pressures. While some analysts remain optimistic, citing historical parallels during previous bull cycles, others caution that persistent macroeconomic uncertainty could prolong the current consolidation phase. The coming weeks, particularly the Fed’s Jackson Hole event, will be critical for setting the tone in the market [3].

Source:

[1] Harvard professor who predicted bitcoin crash to USD100 says regulators were too lax (https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/08/21/harvard-professor-who-predicted-bitcoin-crash-to-usd100-says-regulators-were-too-lax)

[2] Bitcoin price crypto Federal Reserve Jackson Hole (https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/bitcoin-price-crypto-federal-reserve-jackson-hole-085201361.html)

[3] Bitcoin analysts point to 'manipulation' as BTC price falls to 17-day low (https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-analysts-point-to-manipulation-as-btc-price-falls-to-17-day-low)