Bitcoin News Today: Harvard Economist Admits 2018 Bitcoin $100 Prediction Was Wrong

Harvard economist Kenneth Rogoff recently admitted that his 2018 prediction—suggesting Bitcoin was more likely to fall to $100 rather than reach $100,000—was a misjudgment [1]. At the time, Rogoff, a former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund, argued that Bitcoin’s value was inflated and its use largely confined to illicit activities. He expected a regulatory crackdown to drive prices down and limit its adoption as a legitimate transaction medium [2].

However, by 2025, Bitcoin was trading well above $100,000, having reached a peak near $124,000 [3]. Rogoff acknowledged three key miscalculations in his analysis. First, he was overly optimistic about the likelihood of effective and sensible global regulation that would curb Bitcoin’s use in tax evasion and illegal transactions. Second, he underestimated Bitcoin’s role as a medium of exchange in the $20 trillion global underground economy [4]. Third, he failed to anticipate that regulators and high-ranking officials themselves would hold significant crypto assets, creating conflicts of interest that weakened enforcement [5].

Rogoff admitted that traditional economic models failed to account for the unpredictable evolution of the cryptocurrency market. The unexpected growth of Bitcoin was driven by factors such as technological innovation, institutional adoption, and the robustness of decentralized systems—elements he did not fully consider in his 2018 assessment [6]. His admission reflects a broader challenge faced by economists: the difficulty of applying conventional financial frameworks to a market that is inherently volatile and fast-moving [7].

The economist’s reflection has reignited debates about the reliability of expert forecasts in the crypto space. While academic models remain valuable, they are not infallible, especially in markets where rapid change and speculative behavior are common [8]. Rogoff’s willingness to admit his error underscores the importance of humility and adaptability in economic analysis [9].

Source:

[1] Harvard Economist Admits Wrong Bitcoin $100 Prediction (https://cointelegraph.com/news/harvard-economist-predicted-100-bitcoin-crash-in-2018-admits-he-was-wrong)

[2] This economist said in 2018 that bitcoin was more likely to drop to $100 than hit $100K (https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-economist-said-in-2018-that-bitcoin-was-more-likely-to-drop-to-100-than-hit-100k-heres-what-he-says-he-got-wrong-45a7b406)

[3] Harvard Economist Admits His Bitcoin Prediction Went Terribly Wrong (https://www.mexc.co/en-IN/news/harvard-economist-admits-his-bitcoin-prediction-went-terribly-wrong/67178)

[4] Kenneth Rogoff Admits Misjudging Bitcoin Price in 2018 Prediction (https://coincentral.com/kenneth-rogoff-admits-misjudging-bitcoin-price-in-2018-prediction/)

[5] Ex-IMF Economist Kenneth Rogoff Explains Why His Bitcoin Prediction Was Wrong (https://www.benzinga.com/crypto/cryptocurrency/25/08/47228525/ex-imf-economist-kenneth-rogoff-explains-why-his-bitcoin-crash-call-fell-flat-blames-everyone-but-himself-for-missing-it-says-anthony-pompliano)

[6] Bitcoin News Today: Kenneth Rogoff Admits (https://www.ainvest.com/news/bitcoin-news-today-kenneth-rogoff-admits-bitcoin-growth-defied-traditional-economic-models-2508/)