Bitcoin News Today: Goldman Warns Gold Could Hit $5K as Fed Autonomy Fades

Gold is drawing increased attention as potential threats to the Federal Reserve’s independence raise questions about its future as a safe-haven asset. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. posits that if the Fed’s autonomy is compromised and just 1% of the privately owned U.S. Treasury market were to shift into gold, the price of the precious metal could surge toward nearly $5,000 an ounce. This assessment is rooted in the firm’s analysis of how gold serves as a store of value unlinked to institutional trust, contrasting it with traditional financial instruments that may be vulnerable to policy shifts. The scenario outlined by Goldman highlights a broader concern among global markets about the implications of reduced central bank independence, with European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde warning of “serious danger” should the Fed lose its autonomy.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin faces a more immediate and turbulent outlook. Analysts and market participants are closely watching a potential bear market that could begin as early as October, as suggested by the crypto analytics firm Alphractal. Joao Wedson, CEO of Alphractal, notes that the market may be approaching the end of a four-year cycle, which historically signals the onset of a downturn. Under his model, Bitcoin could test support levels near $100,000 before potentially surging past $140,000 within the same period. However, this dynamic hinges on the continued relevance of the four-year price cycle in 2025, a theory that is increasingly debated as institutional demand and speculative activity reshape market fundamentals. The current correction has already pushed Bitcoin below the 0.95 quantile cost basis, indicating widespread net distribution and a cooling off of the “euphoric phase” that characterized much of 2025’s rally.

Bitcoin’s performance is also being influenced by external factors. The Trump family’s growing involvement in the cryptocurrency space has sparked ethical concerns and regulatory scrutiny. With the recent stock market debut of American Bitcoin, a firm co-founded by Eric Trump, the president’s son, the intersection between politics and crypto continues to deepen. The company’s stock price fluctuated on its first day of trading, reflecting both investor enthusiasm and apprehension. Critics argue that the administration’s policies favoring the crypto industry create an uneven playing field, raising questions about potential conflicts of interest. The broader political climate, including President Trump’s push to assert control over the Fed, further complicates the outlook for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, as regulatory clarity remains elusive.

As Bitcoin struggles to reestablish its momentum, the market appears to be shifting attention toward gold as a more reliable store of value. Central banks have been accumulating bullion at an unprecedented rate, with gold reaching record highs in recent weeks. Analysts at Cointelegraph note that historical correlations between gold and Bitcoin suggest BTC may follow gold’s trajectory with a lag, potentially setting the stage for a renewed rally if the precious metal continues to outperform. However, September’s seasonal weakness poses a near-term risk for Bitcoin bulls, with past trends indicating a high probability of price declines during the middle of the month. Market participants are closely watching the 20-day exponential moving average at $112,438, a critical threshold that could determine whether the current correction is coming to an end or if further downward pressure is on the horizon.

In the broader cryptocurrency landscape, altcoins are showing signs of life as investors rotate capital away from Bitcoin and Ethereum. Solana (SOL), in particular, has outperformed major cryptos like Bitcoin and Ethereum, surging by 33% since early August. Analysts attribute this performance to growing institutional interest and the launch of the first U.S.-listed Solana ETF. With potential inflows from digital asset treasuries and a favorable market environment, SOL is being positioned as a potential repeat of Ethereum’s earlier rally. The approval of the Alpenglow upgrade, which aims to improve transaction speed and finality, further adds to the momentum. As Bitcoin faces uncertainty and regulatory challenges, altcoins like Solana are emerging as alternative investment avenues for a market seeking diversification and innovation.

The interplay between gold and Bitcoin continues to define the investment landscape, with each asset representing different responses to macroeconomic and political uncertainties. While Bitcoin remains a speculative asset with high volatility, gold is increasingly seen as a hedge against inflation and central bank instability. As investors reassess risk and reward, the balance between these two asset classes may shift, reshaping the dynamics of global markets in the months to come.

Source:

[1] Bitcoin bear market due in October with $50K bottom target (https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-bear-market-in-october-with-50k-bottom-target-analysis)

[2] Trump family's American Bitcoin makes stock market debut (https://www.nbcnews.com/business/business-news/trump-american-bitcoin-crypto-venture-raises-conflict-interest-alarms-rcna228837)

[3] Bitcoin's 'euphoric phase' cools as $112K becomes key ... (https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-euphoric-phase-cools-112k-key-btc-price-level)

[4] Goldman Says Gold Near $5,000 Possible If Fed Standing ... (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/goldman-sachs-says-gold-could-034116657.html)

[5] Solana (SOL) Price News: Outperforms BTC, Poised to ... (https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/09/03/solana-outperforms-bitcoin-possibly-poised-to-follow-ether-s-recent-200-rally-says-analyst)

[6] BTC, ETH, XRP, BNB, SOL, DOGE, ADA, LINK, HYPE, SUI (https://cointelegraph.com/news/price-predictions-9-3-btc-eth-xrp-bnb-sol-doge-ada-link-hype-sui)