Bitcoin News Today: Goldman's $220K Bitcoin Prediction Hinges on Gold's $5K Gamble

Goldman Sachs has elevated expectations for Bitcoin's price trajectory, projecting the potential for the cryptocurrency to reach as high as $220,000 if gold hits $5,000 per ounce. This bold forecast is grounded in the assumption that the U.S. Federal Reserve’s autonomy may be challenged, a scenario that could undermine the dollar’s dominance and lead to increased flows into alternative assets like gold. Goldman Sachs analyst Samantha Dart explained that if just 1% of the privately held U.S. Treasury market were to shift toward gold, the price of gold could nearly reach $5,000 an ounce under constant conditions [1].

The current year has already seen gold outperform both Bitcoin and major equity indices, with a 37% year-to-date gain compared to Bitcoin’s 22%. Gold’s outperformance is attributed to macroeconomic uncertainties, including Trump administration policies on tariffs and inflation concerns, which have driven investor demand for safe-haven assets. Gold futures recently surged to $3,630 per ounce, with gold ETF holdings reaching a record high of 2,905 tonnes by the end of August. This trend highlights gold’s enduring role as a hedge against economic instability and inflation [1].

Historical correlations between Bitcoin and gold have also been a focal point of analysis. The BTC/XAU ratio—representing the amount of gold needed to buy one Bitcoin—has been consolidating within an ascending triangle pattern since 2017. This pattern suggests that Bitcoin could experience a breakout in late 2025 or early 2026, especially if the broader economic and regulatory environment aligns with bullish conditions. The ratio currently stands at 31.2 ounces of gold per Bitcoin, down from 40 ounces in December 2024, indicating a tightening relationship between the two assets [2].

The technical underpinnings for this potential rally are further reinforced by the interplay between gold and broader monetary dynamics. Analysts have noted that Bitcoin’s performance has historically aligned with gold during periods of macroeconomic stress, such as the early days of the 2020 pandemic, when both assets faced simultaneous downturns. However, Bitcoin’s volatility and speculative nature have often diverged from gold’s more stable trajectory. The recent failure of the BTC/XAU ratio to break through its 2017 highs suggests that gold remains a more reliable store of value in the face of financial uncertainty [3].

Goldman Sachs’ forecast is not an isolated view. Other analysts have drawn parallels between the movements of gold and Bitcoin, suggesting that if gold continues to rise on the back of U.S. dollar weakness and Fed policy shifts, Bitcoin could see a parallel surge. A 15% increase in gold prices from the 2020 base has historically led to a 250% gain in Bitcoin’s price, implying that a move to $5,000 for gold could theoretically push Bitcoin to at least $220,000 [1]. These correlations, however, remain speculative and are contingent on macroeconomic conditions that continue to evolve rapidly.

As the Federal Reserve prepares for its upcoming FOMC meeting, expectations for rate cuts have risen, potentially further inflating asset prices and strengthening the link between gold and Bitcoin. Fed Governor Chris Waller has already called for a 25 basis points rate cut, signaling a possible shift in monetary policy that could further drive liquidity into alternative assets [1]. The outcome of these developments will be closely watched by investors and analysts alike, as they could determine the trajectory of both gold and Bitcoin in the near term.

Source: [1] Where's Bitcoin Price Heading If Gold Hits $5000 As Per ... (https://coingape.com/wheres-bitcoin-price-heading-if-gold-hits-5000-as-per-goldman-sachs/) [2] Gold Outshines in 2025 as Bitcoin-Gold Ratio Eyes Q4 Breakout (https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/09/04/gold-outshines-in-2025-as-bitcoin-gold-ratio-eyes-q4-breakout) [3] Bitcoin vs Gold Correlation Chart (https://newhedge.io/bitcoin/gold-correlation)