Bitcoin News Today: Gold's Structural Shift Undermines Crypto as Investors Flee to Traditional Safe Havens

The crypto market faces renewed turbulence as Bitcoin (BTC) dips below $84,000, marking a significant pullback from its October peak of $126,200. The decline has sparked speculation about macroeconomic triggers, including the Federal Reserve's tightening policies and shifting liquidity conditions. Analysts and traders are closely monitoring whether a December Fed policy shift could catalyze a rebound, while gold's outperformance in 2025 underscores a broader shift in investor sentiment toward traditional safe havens.

The Fed's quantitative tightening (QT) program, which has reduced its balance sheet from $9 trillion to $6.6 trillion since 2022, has tightened liquidity for risk assets like Bitcoin. However, some market participants anticipate a reversal. Cathie Wood of Ark Invest predicts the Fed will end QT by December 1, a move she describes as "de facto easing," which could fuel a Bitcoin price surge. Wood reiterated her long-term $1.5 million BTC price target, citing improved liquidity conditions. Meanwhile, Tom Lee of Fundstrat Capital argues that the recent sell-off, which began in mid-October, may soon reverse, with Bitcoin potentially reclaiming $100,000 by year-end.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs, which had endured four consecutive weeks of outflows totaling $4.35 billion, posted a modest $70 million in inflows last week, offering a glimmer of stabilization. BlackRock's IBIT led the outflows in November with $2.34 billion, though cumulative inflows since launch remain at $57.7 billion, representing 6.5% of Bitcoin's market cap. Ether ETFs also saw a $1.42 billion monthly outflow, the largest on record. Despite these outflows, experts like André Dragosch of Bitwise Europe suggest Bitcoin may have formed a short-term bottom, with RSI nearing oversold levels and whale activity hinting at a potential rally to $100,000–$110,000.

Gold's dominance in 2025, with a 55% gain against Bitcoin's 30% decline, highlights a structural shift in investor preferences. Central banks, including those in China and India, added over 1,000 tons of gold to reserves, driven by geopolitical tensions and de-dollarization efforts. Analysts attribute Bitcoin's struggles to its lack of institutional adoption, regulatory uncertainty, and competition from altcoins and stablecoins. Meanwhile, gold's appeal as a tangible asset has solidified its role in portfolios, with 70% of institutional investors expecting further gains in 2026.

Geopolitical and monetary developments in Asia have further pressured crypto markets. Japan's Bank of Japan (BOJ) hinted at a potential December rate hike, sending 2-year bond yields to a 17-year high of 1.01% and triggering a yen rally. The stronger yen accelerated the unwinding of yen-funded carry trades, which had supported risk assets like Bitcoin. Arthur Hayes of BitMEX noted that Japanese rate hikes historically coincide with crypto sell-offs, citing the 2024 crash as a precedent.

Japan's government also announced plans to align crypto taxation with equities, proposing a flat 20% tax rate on profits. The move, backed by the Financial Services Agency and crypto industry advocates, aims to attract retail and institutional investors by reducing the current 5–45% tax bracket. The Japan Blockchain Association has long lobbied for this reform, arguing it will foster Web3 adoption.

Looking ahead, the market's focus remains on the Fed's December meeting and BOJ's policy trajectory. While Bitcoin's near-term outlook remains volatile, structural factors-such as ETF inflows, macroeconomic easing, and regulatory clarity-could underpin a long-term recovery. However, gold's dominance and Japan's policy shifts suggest that crypto investors must navigate a landscape where traditional assets increasingly outperform digital alternatives.