Bitcoin News Today: Gold's Decline Ignites Bitcoin's Path to $500K?

Bitcoin faces a potential short-term correction as Standard Chartered's Geoffrey Kendrick, head of digital asset research, predicts a "inevitable" dip below $100,000, though he frames it as a buying opportunity. The warning comes amid heightened U.S.-China trade tensions and shifting capital flows between gold and crypto, with the bank's analysis suggesting this could mark the final chance to acquire Bitcoin at sub-six-figure prices.

Kendrick's assessment is rooted in three key indicators. First, he notes a recent rotation of capital from gold to Bitcoin, citing a sharp sell-off in gold coinciding with a Bitcoin rebound on October 22. This dynamic, he argues, signals a potential bottom for Bitcoin. Second, he is monitoring Federal Reserve liquidity measures, with tighter financial conditions likely to ease if the Fed halts its quantitative tightening cycle. Third, Bitcoin's resilience above its 50-week moving average since early 2023 provides technical support, reinforcing his confidence in a near-term rebound.

The market context for this prediction is steeped in volatility. Bitcoin surged to a record $126,000 on October 6 but collapsed following Trump's threats of 100% tariffs on Chinese imports, triggering a $19 billion liquidation event-the largest in crypto history. By mid-October, Bitcoin had fallen to $104,000, with trading volumes spiking to $61.34 billion as investors grappled with macroeconomic uncertainties. Despite the pullback, institutional demand remained strong, with Bitcoin ETFs recording $266 million in inflows on October 22, countering earlier outflows.

Kendrick's bullish long-term outlook remains intact, with a year-end 2025 price target of $200,000 and a 2028 projection of $500,000. This confidence is echoed by crypto advocates, including MicroStrategy's Michael Saylor and Galaxy Digital's Mike Novogratz, who view dips below $100,000 as strategic entry points. The crypto community's Fear and Greed Index plummeted to 29, reflecting widespread caution, yet 82% of investors in community polls remain bullish.

The gold-to-Bitcoin rotation has historical precedent. In late 2022 and early 2024, similar shifts preceded Bitcoin rallies of 38–90% while gold lost relative strength. This week, gold fell 7.2% from its $4,380 peak, with its relative strength index (RSI) retreating from overbought levels-a technical signal often followed by Bitcoin recoveries. Analysts suggest this trend could gain momentum if geopolitical tensions ease or the Fed cuts rates.

Macroeconomic factors, however, remain a double-edged sword. While U.S.-China trade wars have traditionally been negative for risk assets, Bitcoin's correlation with gold and Treasury premiums complicates its trajectory. China's strategic shift from U.S. Treasuries to gold and Bitcoin-driven by de-dollarization concerns-further underscores crypto's growing role as a geopolitical hedge.

Despite the short-term turbulence, the broader narrative for Bitcoin remains positive. Institutional adoption, ETF inflows, and its historical performance during October and November ("Uptober") suggest a strong seasonal tailwind. The 50-week moving average, which has held since early 2023, continues to act as a critical support level.

Kendrick's warning aligns with broader market sentiment. Prediction markets price a 66% chance of Bitcoin dipping below $100,000 in 2025, with a 33% probability of a further drop to $90,000. Yet, as with past corrections, many analysts argue that panic selling often precedes sharp rebounds, particularly when macroeconomic catalysts-like Fed easing or trade war de-escalation-materialize, a point echoed in commentary noting Kendrick's warning.