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The global M2 money supply has surged to record levels in key economies such as the U.S., China, and Japan, signaling a potential shift in macroeconomic conditions that could influence the trajectory of crypto markets. As of early August 2025, the M2 supply had grown to $55.5 trillion, reflecting continued monetary expansion [6]. This metric, which includes cash, checking accounts, and savings, is a key indicator of liquidity in financial systems and has historically correlated with movements in asset prices, including cryptocurrencies [3]. Analysts point to the possibility that rising M2 could drive crypto prices higher, especially if the trend continues [1].
Amid these developments, some large holders are taking proactive steps. Arthur Hayes, a prominent figure in the crypto space, sold significant amounts of Ethereum (ETH), Ethena (ENA), and PEPE tokens over a short six-hour period. The sales, totaling over $13 million, were seen as a cautious move in a market facing short-term volatility [2]. Meanwhile, Eric Trump, who has been a vocal supporter of Bitcoin and Ethereum, has once again encouraged investors to "buy the dips," echoing sentiments he previously shared during a similar market correction in February [6]. His latest comments followed a large Ethereum purchase by World Liberty Financial, a firm aligned with the Trump family, which bought 77,226 ETH at an average price of $3,294 [6]. Such activity underscores a divergence in strategy among major players, with some reducing exposure and others positioning for a potential rebound.
On-chain data also highlights a growing presence of new investors in the market. Bitcoin’s investor dominance has been on an upward trajectory, with prices hovering just below the $120,000 level as of mid-August [4]. Despite a recent correction, some analysts argue that this dip may not indicate a broader downturn but rather a normal part of market cycles, particularly in a context of expanding global liquidity [9]. Historical patterns suggest that a 1% increase in global M2 growth could lead to 65% or higher returns for Bitcoin, assuming it maintains its past elasticity to liquidity surges [1].
Looking ahead, the correlation between Bitcoin and M2 money supply remains a focal point for traders and analysts. The cumulative M2 growth for 2025 reached 2.3%, with a monthly growth rate of 0.63% in May and June [5]. This expansion has fueled optimism among crypto bulls, who see it as a foundation for future price appreciation. Some forecasts suggest that if August ETF inflows exceed $2.3 billion, Ethereum could see a rally toward the $15,000–$16,000 range [7].
While the macroeconomic backdrop appears favorable, the market remains sensitive to geopolitical developments and regulatory shifts. Recent concerns over trade policies and global tensions have contributed to short-term volatility, as seen in Bitcoin’s three-week low [6]. Nevertheless, the broader picture suggests that increasing liquidity, combined with strategic moves by influential investors, could set the stage for a crypto market rebound.
Sources:
[1] These 2 Indicators Suggest Bitcoin Could Soon Double (https://www.mitrade.com/insights/news/live-news/article-8-1007358-20250802)
[2] Global M2 Supply Surge Signals Crypto Upside (https://www.bitget.com/news/detail/12560604892482)
[3] Bitcoin vs Global M2 Supply Growth Chart (https://newhedge.io/bitcoin/bitcoin-vs-global-m2-growth)
[4] Bitcoin Sees Rising New Investor Dominance, Old Holders ... (https://www.mitrade.com/au/insights/news/live-news/article-3-1002965-20250801)
[5] HashWhale Crypto Weekly | Bitcoin Dips Amid Double Kill, ... (https://www.chaincatcher.com/en/article/2194945)
[6] Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin Slides to Three-Week Low ... (https://www.ainvest.com/news/bitcoin-news-today-bitcoin-slides-week-trump-tariffs-weak-economic-data-2508/)
[7] Top 7 Altseason Indicators for 2025 (https://web.ourcryptotalk.com/blog/top-7-altseason-indicators-2025)
[9] Are XRP and Bitcoin's Dips Simply Normal Corrections or ... (https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/savingandinvesting/are-xrp-and-bitcoin-s-dips-simply-normal-corrections-or-signs-of-a-cooling-crypto-market/ar-AA1JE17j)

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