Bitcoin News Today: Fundstrat's Internal Bearish Crypto Outlook Sparks Skepticism Amid Tom Lee's $250K Bitcoin Call

Tom Lee's Fundstrat Faces Scrutiny as Internal Report Suggests Bitcoin Will Drop to $60,000 in 2026
Contradicts Co-Founder's Public Bullish Stance

A leaked internal report from Fundstrat has sparked debate, forecasting a sharp pullback in Bitcoin's price to between $60,000 and $65,000 in the first half of 2026. The document, attributed to Sean Farrell, the firm's head of digital asset strategy, warns of a "meaningful drawdown" for the crypto market during that period. This projection starkly contrasts with public comments from Tom Lee, Fundstrat's co-founder and managing partner, who recently predicted that Bitcoin could hit $250,000 by January 2026.

The internal guidance circulated to Fundstrat clients was shared widely on social media platforms, including X, with screenshots showing detailed price targets for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana. The report frames the expected drop as a short-term correction amid macroeconomic risks, suggesting these levels could offer attractive entry points for investors later in the year.

Lee has publicly defended his bullish stance, citing factors such as pro-business regulations, AI developments, and the new Federal Reserve leadership as tailwinds for the crypto market. He has also highlighted Ethereum's potential, calling it "grossly undervalued" and predicting it could reach $12,000 or more based on historical ratios to Bitcoin.

Why the Standoff Happened

The disparity between Lee's public statements and the firm's internal guidance has led to confusion and skepticism among investors and crypto observers. Some have taken to social media to question whether Fundstrat's differing views represent contradictory strategies or simply different timeframes. One X user noted that Farrell's analysis focuses on risk management and tactical rebalancing for clients with large crypto allocations, while Lee's comments cater to a broader, long-term investment horizon according to analysis.

The internal report outlines a base case scenario where Bitcoin could fall to $60,000–$65,000, with Ethereum targeting $1,800–$2,000 and Solana at $50–$75. Farrell emphasized that these levels could present buying opportunities later in the year. This cautious approach reflects concerns over macroeconomic headwinds, such as trade policy volatility, weaker AI investment returns, and political uncertainty around central banking.

Fundstrat has not publicly confirmed or denied the authenticity of the document, which is labeled for internal client use. However, multiple crypto-focused accounts have confirmed its circulation among clients.

How Markets Reacted

Bitcoin's price has remained relatively stable in recent weeks, trading near $88,000 as of publication. The market's mixed reaction to the Fundstrat report reflects the broader uncertainty around macroeconomic trends and institutional positioning. Some traders have taken a wait-and-see approach, while others are using the internal guidance as a framework for risk management.

Ethereum, which has fallen nearly 42% from its all-time high, is also under pressure. The internal report's suggestion that ETH could drop to $1,800–$2,000 has raised concerns among investors. However, Lee has continued to advocate for Ethereum's long-term potential, drawing comparisons to Bitcoin's post-2017 supercycle and its role in real-world asset tokenization according to analysis.

What Analysts Are Watching

Analysts are closely monitoring how Fundstrat's internal views align with broader market trends. Bitcoin's weekly chart shows signs of weakening momentum, with the price now trading below its 9-week moving average. Technical indicators, such as the RSI, suggest bearish divergence, increasing the likelihood of further downside in the near term.

Fundstrat's cautious outlook also comes amid a broader shift in institutional sentiment. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have become net sellers in the fourth quarter of 2025, with holdings declining by 24,000 BTC. This trend mirrors the weakening demand observed at the end of 2021, which preceded the 2022 bear market.

As the debate over Fundstrat's internal strategy unfolds, investors are weighing the firm's bearish near-term forecast against its long-term bullish stance. The coming months will be critical in determining whether the predicted drawdown materializes - and whether the anticipated recovery in the second half of 2026 will follow.