Bitcoin News Today: Federal Reserve Holds Rates as Bitcoin Falls 2.34% Amid September Easing Hopes

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to maintain its current interest rate policy at the upcoming July 30, 2025, FOMC meeting, with CME Group’s “FedWatch” tool indicating a 97.4% probability of no change [1]. This decision, if confirmed, will align with ongoing economic assessments that suggest a cautious approach to tightening, while markets speculate on potential easing measures by September. The crypto sector, particularly Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), has already begun reacting to these expectations, with heightened volatility observed as traders position portfolios ahead of potential rate adjustments.

Bitcoin’s price dipped below $116,000 on July 25 amid renewed speculation about Federal Reserve policy shifts, according to market tracking data [2]. The cryptocurrency’s 24-hour decline of 2.34% to $116,474.14 coincided with broader macroeconomic uncertainty, as investors weigh the implications of a potential 25-basis-point rate cut in September. Ethereum also experienced notable movements, with its net supply rising in line with evolving market dynamics influenced by central bank signals. While exchanges and officials have remained silent during regulatory quiet periods, the crypto market’s sensitivity to U.S. monetary policy remains pronounced.

Historical patterns underscore the interplay between Fed decisions and digital asset valuations. During mid-2023, when the central bank signaled rate adjustments, both BTC and ETH saw temporary price surges, reflecting short-term volatility tied to liquidity expectations. Current conditions mirror this trend, as traders adjust strategies based on forecasts for September easing. Coincu analysts noted that shifting fiscal policy expectations could amplify discussions about the macroeconomic impacts on digital currencies, particularly as market dominance and trading volumes fluctuate [3].

Bitcoin’s market dominance stood at 60.85%, with a 36.17% increase in trading volume over the past 24 hours, according to CoinMarketCap data [2]. These metrics highlight the asset’s continued role as a bellwether for broader crypto sentiment. However, the 2.34% decline underscores the sector’s susceptibility to shifting monetary environments, even as long-term holders remain resilient. The Federal Reserve’s decision to hold rates in July may provide temporary stability, but the anticipation of September cuts has already introduced a layer of uncertainty into asset valuations.

The evolving narrative reflects a broader tug-of-war between inflation control and growth considerations. While the Fed’s July inaction aligns with a wait-and-see stance, the market’s forward-looking behavior suggests that crypto investors are pricing in a more accommodative policy environment. This dynamic could influence not only digital assets but also risk-on equities and other rate-sensitive markets. For now, the focus remains on the September meeting, where a 25bps cut could trigger a fresh wave of portfolio rebalancing and speculative activity.

Source: [1] [CME Group FedWatch] [https://www.cmegroup.com/education/courses/interest-rates/fedwatch-tool.html]

[2] [CoinMarketCap Data] [https://coinmarketcap.com]

[3] [Coincu Analysis] [https://coincu.com]