The U.S. Federal Reserve's upcoming October 29 rate decision has crypto markets on edge, with analysts predicting heightened volatility as traders brace for the central bank's latest move. The Fed is widely expected to cut rates by 25 basis points, bringing the target range to 3.75%–4.00%, amid easing inflation and slower economic growth. Markets have already priced in a 96.7% probability of the cut, with a second reduction likely in December, according to that Coinpedia analysis. However, the focus remains on Chair Jerome Powell's post-meeting remarks, which could shape expectations for 2026 policy and trigger sharp reactions in risk assets like
and , as noted in .
Bitcoin (BTC) is consolidating near $113,000–$115,000, with two primary scenarios playing out ahead of the FOMC decision. A hawkish stance or prolonged status quo could push
toward $104,000, while a dovish shift may reignite a rally toward $120,000, as outlined in the earlier Coinpedia piece. Technical analysts highlight a "buy the dip" potential if the rate cut materializes, with on-chain data showing $358 million in over the past 24 hours as BTC surged to $116,000. Meanwhile, Ethereum (ETH) remains range-bound, mirroring Bitcoin's cautious trajectory, though a Fed-driven liquidity boost could catalyze a breakout, as suggested by the Coinpedia analysis.The U.S.-China trade summit, set for October 30, adds another layer of uncertainty. Recent diplomatic signals suggest progress toward a trade deal, which could bolster risk appetite and support crypto markets. Bitcoin briefly reclaimed $116,000 following news of improved bilateral relations, though institutional demand has since faded, dragging BTC back to $112,000, according to Coindesk coverage of the move. Analysts at Swissblock caution that Bitcoin must hold the $114,000 support level to sustain a push toward new highs, with on-chain metrics like spot ETF inflows and active addresses remaining critical indicators, as noted by
and . Forklog's team also lays out conditions for a breakout in their analysis of those on-chain metrics, summarized by .While the rate cut is largely priced in, unexpected outcomes—such as a surprise 50-basis-point cut or a policy hold—could trigger sharp sell-offs or rallies. A failure to cut rates might send Bitcoin and Ethereum into freefall, with safe-haven assets like gold gaining traction, a risk highlighted in the Coinpedia FOMC preview. Conversely, a dovish pivot could see BTC reclaim its status as a hedge against inflation and low yields, as historically observed during monetary easing cycles, a point explored in
.The broader market remains in a consolidation phase, with Bitcoin ETF inflows and macroeconomic factors like tech earnings and quantitative tightening shaping the next move. Glassnode analysts note that current inflows remain below levels seen during earlier rallies, signaling tepid institutional demand, as detailed in a
. For now, traders are watching the $113,000–$116,000 range for clues on whether the market will break into a sustained bullish phase or retreat into a prolonged sideways pattern, a scenario discussed in the .
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