Bitcoin News Today: Fed Maintains Rates in July 2025 as Crypto Dips 4% on Policy Uncertainty

The Federal Reserve’s upcoming interest rate decision has ignited renewed speculation within the cryptocurrency market as investors brace for a pivotal week of economic announcements and geopolitical developments. Scheduled for this week, the Fed’s meeting comes amid heightened political tensions, with U.S. President Trump’s direct engagement with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell underscoring the stakes. Trump’s recent visit to the Fed and his conditional support for rate cuts—tied to his tariff policies—highlight the interplay between political pressures and monetary policy. The administration is expected to send nearly 200 tariff letters by Friday, with delays risking U.S. credibility in trade negotiations. Conversely, a potential trade agreement with the European Union could provide a bullish catalyst for cryptocurrencies by mid-week [1].

The cryptocurrency market’s reaction to these developments remains mixed. While markets price in a 96.3% probability of no rate cut at the July 2025 meeting, per Polymarket data, longer-term expectations for easing policy—specifically two rate cuts by mid-December—remain embedded at 40% [2]. This duality reflects short-term caution and long-term optimism, with crypto assets historically sensitive to shifts in dollar valuations and risk sentiment. Bitcoin’s recent 4% price decline, attributed to broader market volatility and speculation about Powell’s future role, exemplifies the sector’s fragility. Meanwhile, total crypto market capitalization dipped by nearly 3% this week as bullish momentum waned, underscoring the sector’s susceptibility to macroeconomic shifts [3].

Analysts emphasize the Fed’s dual mandate—balancing inflation and employment—as a critical determinant for crypto trajectories. A rate cut could lower borrowing costs and weaken the U.S. dollar, potentially driving capital into alternative assets like Bitcoin. However, the market’s reaction to the Fed’s $100 billion loss—linked to Bitcoin’s failed $120k price target—illustrates the sector’s sensitivity to macroeconomic data and policy surprises [4]. The interplay between trade policy, inflation metrics, and Fed guidance is expected to shape market dynamics through August, with investors navigating a delicate balance between optimism and caution.

The week ahead is poised to deliver a high-stakes environment, with over 25 major events—including U.S. economic data releases, trade policy updates, and investor sentiment shifts—potentially influencing crypto markets. This confluence of factors has led some to dub it the “Week of the Year,” given its potential to set trends for months. For now, traders are closely monitoring the Fed’s final decision, Trump’s tariff actions, and any signs of progress in transatlantic trade talks, all of which could determine the next chapter for cryptocurrencies in a rapidly evolving macroeconomic landscape [5].

Source: [1] [Federal Reserve’s Decision Sparks Crypto Speculation] (https://coinmarketcap.com/community/articles/6885ad9bbcc1754ea1229aa9/)

[2] [Polymarket 96.3% Odds No Fed Rate Cut July 2025 FOMC] (https://www.techi.com/polymarket-96-3-odds-no-fed-rate-cut-july-2025-fomc)

[3] [Bitcoin Price Risk 4% Drop Amid Speculation of Powell Resignation] (https://blockzeit.com/bitcoin-price-risk-4-drop-amid-speculation-of-powell-resignation/)

[4] [Fed's $100B Loss Sparks Bitcoin Surge as Crypto Market Contracts $100B] (https://www.ainvest.com/news/bitcoin-news-today-fed-100b-loss-sparks-bitcoin-surge-crypto-market-contracts-100b-2507/)

[5] [Cooling Markets as Fed Rate Decision and Crypto Report...] (https://discover.luno.com/daily-briefing/)