Bitcoin News Today: Will the Fed's New Era Spark Bitcoin's $100K Breakout?

Bitcoin's price trajectory has taken center stage in late 2025, with Fundstrat's Tom Lee forecasting a new all-time high as early as January 2026. The prediction hinges on anticipated shifts in U.S. monetary policy, particularly a potential leadership change at the Federal Reserve. Lee, a prominent crypto analyst, argues that a more accommodative Fed under Kevin Hassett-widely seen as a frontrunner to replace Jerome Powell-could catalyze Bitcoin's resurgence. This view aligns with historical patterns, such as the 17% market rally following the Fed's pause of quantitative tightening in 2019.

The Federal Reserve's current stance remains pivotal. With the central bank poised to end its quantitative tightening phase, markets are bracing for a policy pivot that could soften the U.S. dollar and boost risk assets. Lee emphasized that Bitcoin's price is highly sensitive to rate expectations, noting that a shift toward rate cuts under Hassett could further amplify the cryptocurrency's appeal. The potential appointment of Hassett, who has advocated for greater Fed transparency and a more crypto-friendly approach, has already been priced into markets, with prediction platforms giving him a 79% chance of securing the chairmanship.

However, the path to a new high is not without turbulence. Short-term volatility is expected, with some experts like Peter Brandt warning of a potential dip to $58,000 before a recovery in January 2026. Benjamin Cowen, another analyst, echoed this pattern, citing a similar correction in 2024 after a rate cut. Despite these near-term risks, Lee remains bullish, projecting Bitcoin could surpass $100,000 by year-end and challenge its October 2024 peak of $125,000. His optimism is underpinned by growing institutional demand and the likelihood of aggressive Fed rate cuts in 2026.

The political and regulatory landscape further complicates the outlook. President Donald Trump's push for a Fed chair who prioritizes lower interest rates has intensified scrutiny on the central bank's independence. While the Fed Chair holds only one of twelve votes on the Federal Open Market Committee, Hassett's alignment with Trump's economic agenda could influence the broader policy direction. Critics, however, caution that the Fed's structural design limits the impact of any single appointee, particularly given the staggered terms of governors and regional bank presidents.

Looking ahead, Bitcoin's performance will closely track December's Fed rate decision and the pace of institutional adoption. The cryptocurrency has found support near $87,000 amid shifting macroeconomic expectations, with the probability of a December rate cut now exceeding 80%. Meanwhile, developments in real-world asset tokenization and corporate Bitcoin treasuries-such as Strive Asset Management's public merger-highlight a broader institutional embrace of digital assets.

As the market awaits clarity on Fed leadership and monetary policy, Bitcoin's trajectory remains a barometer for global economic sentiment. Whether Lee's $100,000 target materializes by year-end or in early 2026, the interplay between central bank actions and crypto markets underscores the evolving role of digital assets in the financial ecosystem.

Given the potential impact of the Fed's future monetary policy decisions on Bitcoin's price, it is important to assess how historical events have affected outcomes.