Bitcoin News Today: Fed Easing and Global Stimulus Extend Bitcoin's Bull Cycle

Bitcoin and the Dollar: How Shifting Macroeconomic Trends Could Extend This Market Cycle

Bitcoin's price trajectory is increasingly intertwined with macroeconomic dynamics, as shifting trends in U.S. Treasury yields, Federal Reserve policy, and geopolitical developments create a prolonged bull cycle for the cryptocurrency. With the Fed poised to cut interest rates two more times this year and global stimulus measures gaining momentum, Bitcoin faces a critical juncture where institutional adoption and macroeconomic tailwinds could propel it toward $125,000 or even $1 million.

The Federal Reserve's dovish pivot has already triggered a broad decline in Treasury yields, with the 10-year yield falling to 3.949% after a well-received 20-year bond auction. Analysts attribute the trend to a weaker labor market and the 22-day government shutdown, which has stifled economic data and pressured growth. The Fed's expected 25-basis-point rate cut on Oct. 29—its third such move this year—will further weaken the U.S. dollar, historically a key catalyst for Bitcoin rallies.

Mike Novogratz highlighted Trump's potential influence on the market, stating that the president's actions on the Fed and the passage of a pending market structure bill could "take out the topside" and push Bitcoin above $125,000. This aligns with broader institutional sentiment, as Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded a $477 million inflow on Oct. 22, breaking a streak of outflows and signaling renewed confidence, according to a Bitcoin price forecast. Meanwhile, JPMorgan's upcoming policy to allow Bitcoin and Ethereum as collateral for institutional loans by year-end underscores the asset's growing legitimacy in traditional finance.

Geopolitical developments also play a role. Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, predicted that Japan's new economic stimulus package—aimed at easing inflationary pressures—could drive Bitcoin toward $1 million by spurring fiat money printing. This aligns with historical patterns where quantitative easing (QE) and weaker currencies have bolstered risk assets. The Bank of Japan's potential pivot to QE, though uncertain, remains a key watchpoint for crypto markets.

Bitcoin's technical outlook remains mixed. While it stabilized around $108,000 after a failed push above $114,000, on-chain indicators suggest a bearish bias. The RSI and MACD remain below neutral levels, and a close below $106,453 could trigger further corrections. However, institutional demand—evidenced by ETF inflows and JPMorgan's collateral policy—provides a floor for the price.

The interplay between falling bond yields and Bitcoin's performance is critical. As U.S. Treasury yields decline, capital flows into risk assets, with Bitcoin's inverse correlation to the dollar amplifying its appeal. This dynamic is expected to persist as the Fed continues its easing cycle, with markets pricing in three more 25-basis-point cuts in 2026.

Institutional adoption is another key driver. Bealls Inc.'s integration of cryptocurrency payments and JPMorgan's collateral policy signal broader acceptance, reducing volatility and enhancing liquidity. These developments align with long-term trends, as crypto's role as a hedge against inflation and currency devaluation gains traction.