Bitcoin News Today: U.S. Fed to Announce Rate Decision on July 30; 97.4% Probability of No Change, Unlikely Cut Could Spur Crypto Rally

The U.S. Federal Reserve is set to announce its latest interest rate decision on Wednesday, July 30, with the cryptocurrency market closely monitoring potential implications for Bitcoin (BTC) and altcoins. While market expectations largely favor a status quo policy—pricing in a 97.4% probability of no rate change—analysts have outlined two key scenarios based on the Fed’s decision. A surprise rate cut, though considered unlikely, could trigger a rally in risk-on assets, while a decision to maintain rates may result in sideways movement or consolidation for crypto markets [1].

Crypto analyst Paul Barron highlighted the possibility of an unexpected 25 basis point cut, which could boost equities, real estate, and cryptocurrencies. Historically, such cuts have benefited the S&P 500, and lower interest rates generally support riskier assets like BTC and altcoins. For instance, XRP and Cardano (ADA) have faced recent profit-taking but could regain upward momentum if the Fed adopts a dovish stance [2]. However, Barron warned that a rate cut might signal economic weakness, fueling consumer uncertainty and inflationary risks, which could undermine market optimism [3].

Conversely, a decision to hold rates steady—despite expectations of easing—could introduce volatility. Traders have priced in a 61% probability of the Fed’s first rate cut in September 2025, according to Fed Watch data. A deviation from this forecast, such as prolonged tightness, might pressure Bitcoin near its $115,000–$120,000 range and altcoins that have shown stabilization [4]. Current market dynamics reflect a mixed outlook, with Bitcoin approaching $120,000 and Ethereum near $4,000. XRP, in a recovery phase, could benefit from a decline in BTC’s dominance ratio (currently at 60.84%), which might shift liquidity to smaller cryptocurrencies [5].

The Fed’s rationale for any rate cut will shape its impact. A dovish move framed around weak inflation or economic data could signal a longer-term easing cycle, providing sustained tailwinds for crypto. In contrast, a cut amid persistent inflationary pressures might be seen as a short-term measure, limiting price gains [6]. Broader macroeconomic factors, including global equity indices and real estate markets, will also influence crypto’s response to the Fed’s decision [7].

Traders are advised to closely monitor the Fed’s accompanying statement and forward guidance for clues about future monetary policy. While Bitcoin’s price trajectory post-rate decision remains speculative, the market’s reaction will hinge on whether the Fed surprises with a cut or reaffirms its current stance.

Sources:

[1] [Fed to Announce Interest Rate Decision This Week! How Will Bitcoin (BTC) and Altcoins Be Affected? Analyst Explains Two Possible Scenarios](https://coinmarketcap.com/community/articles/688788313c1f324d51532f80/)

[2] [FED Rate Cuts This Week Could Trigger Major Crypto Rally](https://coinpedia.org/news/fed-rate-cuts-this-week-could-trigger-major-crypto-rally/)

[3] [Daily Crypto Insights: Macro Swings, Altcoin Unlocks & ...](https://medium.datadriveninvestor.com/daily-crypto-insights-macro-swings-altcoin-unlocks-options-alpha-147a30b861a2)

[4] [Traders were hyped. The market said no](https://www.bitdegree.org/crypto/news/traders-were-hyped-the-market-said-no)

[5] [Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP showcase bullish ...](https://www.mitrade.com/insights/news/live-news/article-3-991831-20250728)

[6] [Daily Crypto Insights: Macro Swings, Altcoin Unlocks & ...](https://medium.datadriveninvestor.com/daily-crypto-insights-macro-swings-altcoin-unlocks-options-alpha-147a30b861a2)

[7] [Coach Miranda Miner is LIVE from Dubai to break down ...](https://www.facebook.com/CoachMirandaMiner/videos/top-macro-drivers-moving-crypto-this-week-fed-decisions-global-market-impact/748499184212583/)