Bitcoin News Today: Ethereum ETFs Surge, But September History Casts Long Shadow

Ether’s recent price surge in August has positioned the cryptocurrency at a critical juncture as historical seasonality patterns raise concerns about a potential September downturn. Since the start of the month, Ether has gained approximately 25%, reaching $4,759 by the end of August, according to CoinMarketCap. This rally was partly driven by the U.S. Federal Reserve’s dovish commentary from Chair Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole symposium, which hinted at a possible rate cut in September. However, historical data suggests caution for the cryptocurrency during the following month. Since 2016, September has delivered an average loss of 6.42% for Ether, with notable pullbacks following strong August gains in 2017, 2020, and 2021 [1].

Crypto trader CryptoGoos highlighted this seasonality in an X post, noting that Ether’s post-halving performance in September has typically been negative. The current rally is unfolding against a backdrop of growing institutional interest in Ethereum, including the rise of spot Ether ETFs and the accumulation of the asset by corporate treasuries. This is a contrast to past August rallies, when such factors were not as prominent [1]. On August 11, Ether held by companies with crypto treasuries surpassed $13 billion in value, indicating growing confidence in the asset [1].

The rise of spot Ether ETFs has been a key factor in Ether’s performance. In August, these funds have seen net inflows of approximately $2.79 billion, far outpacing the $1.2 billion outflows in spot Bitcoin ETFs during the same period. The shift in investor sentiment is evident as Bitcoin’s market dominance has fallen to 58.19% from 66% earlier in the year, signaling a capital rotation into Ethereum and other altcoins [1]. This trend is reflected in the ETH/BTC ratio, which has risen to 0.038, drawing comparisons to the 2020 bottoming pattern. Analyst Benjamin Cowen anticipates a peak near 0.04 by late August followed by a correction, driven in part by Bitcoin’s seasonal dominance [2].

Despite the positive momentum, several analysts warn that the recent rise in Ether may not be sustainable. The ETF outflows in the last two days alone have reached $256 million, with BlackRock and Fidelity leading the exodus. The growing unstaking queue on the Ethereum network, currently at 910,000 ETH, adds to concerns about liquidity pressure and potential price corrections [3]. Additionally, the volatility in Ethereum ETFs highlights the market’s susceptibility to rapid shifts in sentiment, as seen in the recent outflows following a sharp price decline [4].

The broader crypto market is also showing signs of uncertainty. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has moved to “Fear,” indicating a shift from optimism to caution among investors. While some experts argue that this is a normal part of market cycles, others warn that the recent outflows could signal a larger trend. The ETF outflows, however, are still modest compared to the record $3.7 billion inflow streak seen earlier in the month [3].

Historical patterns suggest that even if Ether faces a September pullback, a recovery may follow. In 2016 and 2020, despite September losses, Ether saw gains in the following three months. This time, however, the presence of ETFs and corporate treasuries may alter the trajectory. Nate Geraci from NovaDius Wealth Management noted a “notable shift” in the inflow patterns, suggesting a structural change in how investors view Ether [1]. Whether this will prevent a historical September downturn remains to be seen.

Source: [1] Ether's Upswing In August May Reverse In September: Data (https://cointelegraph.com/news/ether-price-rally-august-september-caution-history-shows-coinglass) [2] Ethereum's Strength Against Bitcoin Is Real But Beware A ... (https://www.benzinga.com/crypto/cryptocurrency/25/08/47261765/ethereums-strength-against-bitcoin-is-real-but-beware-a-september-pullback-analyst-warns) [3] Spot Ether ETFs See $197M Outflows, Second-Largest Ever (https://cointelegraph.com/news/ether-etfs-197m-outflows-second-largest) [4] Bitcoin, Ether ETFs post almost $1B outflows as prices slide (https://cointelegraph.com/news/crypto-funds-bleed-bitcoin-outflows-surge-5x-ether-outflows-double)