Bitcoin News Today: ETFs vs. Cycles: Can Bitcoin Escape a Red October?

Bitcoin’s future trajectory in October 2025 remains a contentious topic among analysts, with diverging perspectives on whether the asset will hit a peak near $140,000 or enter a deeper bear market. The debate centers on the interplay between historical price cycles, institutional investment flows, and macroeconomic conditions. According to Joao Wedson, CEO of crypto analytics firm Alphractal, Bitcoin is approaching the end of a four-year price cycle, which historically marks the onset of bear markets. If this pattern holds, a correction could begin as soon as October, with potential price targets ranging from a $100,000 support retest to a $50,000 bottom by October 2026 [3]. This view is supported by Wedson’s “Repetition Fractal Cycle” analysis, which shows a recurring bear market tendency in Bitcoin after four-year intervals.

Conversely, institutional demand for Bitcoin is showing signs of resilience. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen a surge in inflows, adding $633.3 million over two consecutive sessions, a significant rebound from August’s net outflows [2]. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) and Fidelity’s Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) accounted for the largest share of these inflows, with IBIT capturing $289.8 million in a single session. The ETF-driven accumulation reflects growing institutional confidence in Bitcoin as a store of value and hedge against macroeconomic uncertainty. This trend is further reinforced by Japanese Bitcoin treasury firm Metaplanet, which added 1,009 BTC to its holdings during a recent capital raise, bringing its total reserves to 20,000 BTC [2].

The recent ETF inflows contrast sharply with the outflows observed in Ethereum ETFs. While Ethereum had dominated inflows earlier in 2025, Bitcoin ETFs have since reversed the trend. On Sept. 3, Bitcoin ETFs gained $332.7 million while Ethereum ETFs lost $135.3 million [2]. This shift suggests a reallocation of capital toward Bitcoin amid growing macroeconomic concerns, including potential Federal Reserve rate cuts and inflationary pressures from new U.S. trade policies. Analysts note that if ETF inflows remain sustained through September, they could counteract the seasonal weakness historically seen in the fall months, potentially stabilizing Bitcoin’s price above key resistance levels [2].

The current market dynamics are also influenced by the broader crypto landscape. On-chain data reveals that long-term holders are increasingly transferring Bitcoin into ETF structures at an accelerated pace, a shift that has occurred three times since 2024 compared to typically once per cycle before. This structural redistribution implies that ETFs are becoming a dominant vehicle for institutional accumulation, with BlackRock’s IBIT already managing $83 billion in assets under management [2]. As Bitcoin ETFs now command over $145 billion in assets—6.5% of Bitcoin’s total market cap—the asset class has institutionalized Bitcoin exposure, offering a more stable and regulated pathway for investment.

Despite the bullish ETF narrative, sentiment in prediction and derivatives markets remains cautious. On decentralized platforms like Myriad, 65% of traders anticipate a short-term dip to $105,000 before Bitcoin can retest $125,000. Binance Australia’s investor poll also suggests limited optimism, with only one in four respondents believing Bitcoin can surpass $150,000 within six months [2]. These metrics highlight the market’s awareness of potential volatility, particularly as Bitcoin approaches the $100,000 psychological level, a key support zone currently being tested by the price action.

In conclusion, the Bitcoin price outlook in October 2025 is divided between those who see the asset reaching a multi-year high near $140,000 and those who anticipate a bear market driven by cyclical and macroeconomic factors. The institutional shift toward ETFs, growing Bitcoin treasury accumulation, and evolving regulatory environments could determine whether Bitcoin avoids a “Red September” or faces a deeper correction. For now, the market remains in flux, with ETF inflows and macroeconomic developments serving as critical indicators of Bitcoin’s next move.

Source:

[1] title1 (https://www.mexc.com/price/FB)

[2] title2 (https://www.tradingnews.com/news/bitcoin-etf-inflows-surge-633m-usd-btc-price-110k-usd)

[3] title3 (https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-bear-market-in-october-with-50k-bottom-target-analysis)