Bitcoin News Today: ETF Inflows and Macro Tailwinds Sustain Bitcoin's Uptober Despite Geopolitical Volatility

Bitcoin's October rally, known as "Uptober," remains intact despite a recent $19 billion liquidation event triggered by U.S.-China trade tensions, according to analysts. Historical seasonality, institutional adoption, and macroeconomic tailwinds continue to underpin bullish sentiment, even as volatility underscores the market's sensitivity to geopolitical risks.

The crash, driven by Donald Trump's announcement of a 100% tariff on Chinese imports and export controls, caused Bitcoin to drop from $125,000 to $102,000 within hours, wiping out $400 billion in crypto market value. Ethereum and altcoins like Solana and XRP fell 15–51% as leveraged positions collapsed. Coinglass reported $19.13 billion in liquidations, marking the largest single-day wipeout in crypto history .

However, Bitcoin stabilized above $113,000 by late October, supported by ETF inflows and reduced volatility post-ETF approval. Total inflows into U.S.-listed Bitcoin ETFs reached $14.2 billion in October, with BlackRock's IBIT alone accumulating $90.7 billion in assets Bitcoin’s “Uptober” Outlook: A Deep Dive into Historical Trends, Macro Forces and ETF Dynamics^[1]. Analysts argue that the crash exposed overleveraged positions but did not derail the underlying bullish fundamentals.

Historical data shows Bitcoin has gained 14–22% in October 10 of the past 12 years, with 2025's rally fueled by dovish monetary policy and ETF-driven liquidity. The Federal Reserve's September rate cut and anticipated further reductions in October and December have weakened the U.S. dollar, a tailwind for Bitcoin's "digital gold" narrative Bitcoin’s “Uptober” Outlook: A Deep Dive into Historical Trends, Macro Forces and ETF Dynamics^[1].

Institutional adoption, led by ETFs, has also transformed market dynamics. Bitcoin's average daily volatility dropped to 1.8% post-ETF approval, compared to 4.2% previously, signaling growing institutional confidence Bitcoin’s “Uptober” Outlook: A Deep Dive into Historical Trends, Macro Forces and ETF Dynamics^[1]. Meanwhile, stablecoin supply hit a record $297 billion, reflecting increased liquidity in the crypto ecosystem .

Despite the crash, many analysts view the dip as a catalyst for a deeper rally. JPMorgan projects Bitcoin could reach $165,000 by year-end to align with gold's valuation, while Standard Chartered targets $200,000 Bitcoin’s “Uptober” Outlook: A Deep Dive into Historical Trends, Macro Forces and ETF Dynamics^[1]. Technical indicators, including Bitcoin's 30-day RSI nearing oversold levels, suggest a potential rebound .

The SEC's upcoming decisions on altcoin ETFs, including Solana and XRP, are also seen as a potential trigger for a broader market rally. October's "ETF month" could see $70 billion in inflows, with altcoin season anticipated to follow Bitcoin's lead Bitcoin’s “Uptober” Outlook: A Deep Dive into Historical Trends, Macro Forces and ETF Dynamics^[1].

While the long-term outlook remains positive, short-term risks persist. Trump's trade policies could escalate tensions, while unexpected inflation data or regulatory actions may disrupt the rally. However, analysts emphasize that Bitcoin's historical resilience and reduced volatility post-ETF approval position it to absorb shocks better than in previous cycles .

The October crash, though severe, has not derailed Uptober's core drivers. Institutional adoption, macroeconomic tailwinds, and historical seasonality continue to support a year-end rally. Traders are advised to monitor the Fed's rate decisions, ETF inflows, and geopolitical developments, with Bitcoin's ability to reclaim key resistance levels like $120,000 critical to sustaining the bullish momentum.