Bitcoin News Today: Death Cross Test: Cyclical Low or Deeper Crypto Capitulation?

Bitcoin's descent below critical technical thresholds has sparked intense debate among analysts, as the cryptocurrency enters a "death cross" formation and Ethereum shows early signs of following suit. The 50-day moving average for Bitcoin (BTC) fell below its 200-day moving average, a bearish signal historically associated with prolonged downturns. As of this writing, BTC trades near $91,000, down over 5% in the last 24 hours, marking its lowest level since April 2025.

The death cross, a pattern often viewed as a harbinger of extended weakness, has drawn comparisons to past cycles. Analyst Ali Martinez notes that while previous death crosses eventually reversed, the current price action mirrors the 2022 slump in speed and severity. On-chain data further underscores bearish sentiment, with a surge in Bitcoin transfers to exchanges signaling increased sell-side pressure. Meanwhile, Ethereum (ETH) is trading near $2,900, teetering on the edge of its own death cross as its 50-day moving average approaches the 200-day line.

Technical indicators paint a mixed picture. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for Bitcoin has plunged to 27, entering oversold territory, a level that historically precedes rebounds. However, analysts caution against relying solely on this signal. "An oversold RSI can persist far longer than buyers can stay afloat," one trader notes, emphasizing the need for price action confirmation, such as candlestick patterns or support level holds. For Ethereum, the ADX-a measure of trend strength-hovers at 42.4, suggesting a robust bearish trend.

Historical cycles add complexity to the outlook. Bitcoin's 2017 and 2021 bull runs were followed by bear markets lasting ~364 days, with drawdowns of 77–84%. If the current cycle peaked in October 2025, a similar timeline would point to a potential bottom in late 2026. Yet, some analysts argue that macroeconomic shifts in 2025, including Federal Reserve policy uncertainty and stalled ETF inflows, could alter this trajectory.

Market sentiment reflects extreme fear, with the Fear & Greed Index hitting 11-the lowest since April 2025. Prediction market platforms like Myriad show 73% of traders betting Bitcoin will drop to $85,000, while Ethereum faces a 62% probability of sliding to $2,500. These odds align with Fibonacci support levels and key technical breakdown points, though bulls cling to hope that a swift rebound could reclaim the 200-day moving average.

Ethereum's plight is compounded by its precarious position near a golden cross (50-day above 200-day EMA) while trading below both averages, a contradiction that highlights market fragility. Analysts warn that if ETH breaks its $2,700–$2,800 support zone, a descent toward $2,300 becomes increasingly likely.

As the crypto market grapples with volatility, the coming weeks will test whether this death cross marks a cyclical low or a deeper capitulation phase. With macroeconomic uncertainty and on-chain metrics at odds, investors face a high-stakes wait for clarity.