Bitcoin News Today: Death Cross Casts Doubt, But Institutional Moves Fuel Bitcoin Rally Hopes

Bitcoin's price trajectory has sparked intense debate among traders and analysts, with veteran trader Alessio Rastani asserting a 75% chance of a short-term rally despite bearish signals. Rastani's optimism contrasts with widespread fear metrics and a recent "death cross" technical pattern, where the 50-day moving average fell below the 200-day average - a historically bearish indicator according to analysis. His analysis hinges on historical precedents, extreme sentiment indicators, and correlations with equities, suggesting the recent pullback may not signal a prolonged bear market as reported.

The death cross, confirmed on November 16, 2025, has intensified discussions about Bitcoin's momentum. On-chain data reveals weakening short-term holder activity, ETF outflows, and rising transfers to exchanges, aligning with patterns seen in prior corrections according to experts. However, Rastani argues that the absence of a "blow-off top" at the recent high implies the cycle's terminal peak has not yet materialized, leaving room for further upside according to his analysis.

Institutional activity also signals shifting dynamics. Nasdaq's proposal to quadruple trading limits for BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF options reflects growing institutional confidence. By expanding derivatives liquidity, the move positions Bitcoin alongside mega-cap assets like Apple and Microsoft, enabling controlled position-building and reducing volatility according to market reports. Analysts note this transition from speculative to allocation-driven trading could stabilize Bitcoin's price action as observed.

Yet bearish forces persist. Economist Paul Krugman dismissed Bitcoin as a volatile tech stock, lacking utility as money or inflation hedge according to his assessment. Meanwhile, the death cross has amplified caution, with Bitcoin trading below key moving averages and the Fear and Greed Index hitting extreme fear levels (14/100). Some predict a deeper correction toward the $74,000-$76,000 range, while others see a potential rebound if ETF flows stabilize as market data shows.

Tom Lee, formerly bullish on a $250,000 year-end target, now calls the goal a "maybe," forecasting a more modest rebound above $100,000 according to his latest prediction. His firm, BitMine, has continued accumulating Ethereum during dips, signaling conviction in crypto's long-term potential despite near-term turbulence according to company reports.

The market's next move hinges on critical levels: $92,000-$94,000 near-term support, $74,000-$76,000 for a deeper correction, and $100,000 as a psychological barrier for a rebound according to market analysis. Institutional demand, macroeconomic developments, and sentiment shifts will determine whether this death cross marks the end of a cycle or a transition into consolidation.