Bitcoin News Today: CryptoQuant CEO Admits Bitcoin Cycle Theory Invalidated as Institutional Accumulation Drives 54% Price Surge

Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, has acknowledged that his long-standing Bitcoin cycle theory is no longer applicable, citing a structural shift in market dynamics driven by institutional accumulation. Historically, his framework predicted market cycles by tracking whale activity—buying during accumulation phases and selling as retail investors entered. However, Ju now notes that older institutional holders are transferring Bitcoin to newer long-term institutional buyers, such as treasury management firms, rather than distributing it to retail investors. This transition has disrupted traditional predictive models, as the maturing market now prioritizes institutional holding over speculative trading [1].

The shift is evident in on-chain data. Since early 2023, retail investors have been net sellers of Bitcoin, while institutions and large wallets—particularly ETFs—have consistently accumulated the asset. This dynamic has fostered a quieter, data-driven bull market, diverging from the euphoric retail-driven rallies of past cycles. CryptoQuant analyst Burakkesmeci highlights that the current phase lacks the social media frenzy and mass euphoria seen in 2021, instead featuring a “sober accumulation” by institutional actors [1].

Ju’s revised stance underscores the limitations of past frameworks. His March 2025 assertion that the bull cycle had ended was invalidated when Bitcoin surged 54% to $123,236 in July 2025, exceeding his reference point of $80,000. The analyst attributes this to institutional adoption exceeding expectations, altering liquidity and volatility patterns. He admitted underestimating the permanence of institutional participation, which has reshaped market mechanics [1].

The implications for market forecasting are profound. Traditional bear market signals—such as retail panic selling—no longer apply. If institutions, which typically exhibit different risk behaviors, were to panic, the characteristics of a future bear market could diverge significantly from historical patterns. This uncertainty complicates risk management strategies, requiring analysts to develop new models focused on institutional behavior rather than retail sentiment [1].

The debate over Bitcoin’s cyclical nature remains contentious. While Ju argues institutional forces now dominate, Fidelity Digital Assets’ Jurrien Timmer maintains the four-year cycle is intact, citing Bitcoin’s alignment with historical patterns and its recent record high as evidence [2]. This divergence reflects broader tensions in the crypto ecosystem: whether institutional adoption has permanently altered Bitcoin’s trajectory or if retail sentiment still plays a pivotal role. Ju’s analysis leans toward the former, emphasizing that trading activity has become less relevant in a landscape dominated by large-scale transfers [1].

The shift also challenges traditional investment strategies. Strategies reliant on retail-driven cycles and predictable halving events may require reevaluation. Institutional players, now the primary custodians of Bitcoin’s liquidity, are reshaping market dynamics through long-term accumulation. This transition could redefine how investors approach the asset, prioritizing macroeconomic factors and institutional sentiment over speculative trading [1].

Critics argue the persistence of cycle theory reflects an outdated view of Bitcoin’s market maturity. As adoption grows and capital consolidates in institutional portfolios, the asset’s behavior increasingly mirrors traditional financial markets. This evolution demands new analytical frameworks that account for opaque institutional strategies, rather than relying on historical retail-driven patterns [1].

The maturing crypto ecosystem is marked by reduced volatility and a shift toward institutional governance. While Ju’s admission has sparked debate, it highlights the need for adaptive models that prioritize institutional dynamics. Investors and analysts must now navigate a landscape where large-scale participation—not retail speculation—dictates Bitcoin’s trajectory.

Sources:

[1] [Bitcoin Cycle Theory Is Dead, Top Analyst Says] [https://u.today/bitcoin-cycle-theory-is-dead-top-analyst-says]

[2] [Bitcoin continues to follow its 4-year cycle] [https://twitter.com/TimmerFidelity/status/1654555555555555555]