Bitcoin News Today: Cryptocurrency Market Awaits Powell's Jackson Hole Policy Signals

The cryptocurrency market is in a state of anticipation as traders and investors prepare for Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, scheduled for August 21–23, 2025. The event, themed “Labor Markets in Transition: Demographics, Productivity, and Macroeconomic Policy,” has become the focal point for potential shifts in rate expectations and risk sentiment, according to analyst Josh Olszewicz. “The only big, big event is going to be this,” he remarked in his August 18 Macro Monday stream, emphasizing the significance of Powell’s remarks in shaping market direction [1].

Current positioning in the crypto space suggests a cautious stance. Commitment of Traders (COT) data on CME shows commercials—traditionally seen as a reliable indicator—have not taken strong long positions. At the same time, basis trades remain attractive, and open interest has increased across futures and options, particularly for Solana. This combination, according to Olszewicz, limits the potential for upward movement without a clear macroeconomic trigger [1].

Fund flows have been mixed. Global crypto ETPs saw a net inflow of nearly $4 billion for the week, largely driven by Ethereum, which posted an all-time high weekly flow. Bitcoin’s intake, by comparison, appeared modest. Solana and XRP also saw increased inflows, but these do not offset the lack of a strong macro impulse ahead of Powell’s speech [1].

Market activity is also being shaped by developments at MicroStrategy. The company’s updated equity policy, allowing at-the-market issuance below a 2.5× mNAV premium, has sparked increased arbitrage activity as traders short MSTR and go long BTC. Olszewicz noted that MicroStrategy’s BTC accumulation has slowed, and the stock’s momentum is fading, reducing leverage opportunities for the asset [1].

Technically, the near-term outlook remains subdued. Olszewicz described the current phase as “a giant, giant nothing burger,” with Bitcoin needing to break above the $120,000–$122,000 range to set up a cleaner long bias. MicroStrategy, in his view, is unlikely to see significant movement until either Bitcoin trends or corporate accumulation accelerates. Across crypto equities, he found little compelling for long positions, with exchanges, brokerages, and miners showing minimal momentum on his cloud models [1].

Macro guardrails will be closely watched in the lead-up to Powell’s speech. Olszewicz highlighted the US dollar index, which should remain “chop neutral” and below 99–100 to avoid pressuring long BTC positions. On the Treasury side, a 10-year yield durably below 4.25% would support risk-on sentiment, while a rise above 5% could cause broader market distress. He also noted liquidity dynamics, including drawdowns in reverse repos and refills in the Treasury General Account, which may influence the Fed’s policy response [1].

Despite the uncertainty, the market currently favors a September rate cut, with futures-implied tools indicating an 83% probability of a 25 bps move. Olszewicz warned that if expectations shift toward no cut, markets could react negatively, while a surprise 50 bps cut—though unlikely—would be received positively [1].

Looking ahead, Olszewicz is adopting a wait-and-see approach. He noted that crypto’s Q3 seasonality typically acts as a headwind and that meaningful trend signals tend to re-emerge in Q4. Between now and then, the tone of Powell’s comments on inflation progress, labor market conditions, and the potential for pre-emptive easing will determine whether this week’s sideways movement becomes the foundation for a new bullish phase or a reminder of macroeconomic dominance over crypto risk profiles [1].

As of the latest report, the total crypto market cap stood at $3.84 trillion, with recent price action showing resistance at the 1.414 Fibonacci level on the 1-week chart [1].

Source: [1] Crypto Braces For Impact As JPow’s Jackson Hole Speech Looms (https://www.newsbtc.com/news/crypto-jpow-jackson-hole-speech/)