Bitcoin News Today: Crypto Treasury Premiums Shrink as Investor Anxiety Grows

Falling premiums on digital asset treasury (DAT) firms have intensified pressure on crypto treasury companies, according to New York Digital Investment Group (NYDIG). The narrowing gap between share prices and net asset values (NAVs) of major Bitcoin (BTC) firms, such as Strategy and Metaplanet, has raised concerns among investors and analysts. NYDIG’s global head of research, Greg Cipolaro, attributed this trend to a combination of factors, including investor anxiety over upcoming supply unlocks, evolving corporate strategies, increased share issuance, and investor profit-taking. These pressures have compressed premiums even as BTC has reached new price highs, signaling a shift in market sentiment.

The current premium compression is not isolated to a few firms but has been observed across the broader DAT landscape. According to a report by CryptoQuant, Bitcoin treasury companies collectively hold a record 840,000 BTC, with Strategy alone accounting for 76%, or 637,000 BTC. However, the pace of accumulation has slowed significantly in recent months. For instance, Strategy’s average monthly Bitcoin purchase size dropped to 1,200 BTC in August, compared to 14,000 BTC at its 2025 peak. Other firms have reduced their average acquisition size by 86% from their March 2025 high. This decline in purchase volume has contributed to a substantial slowdown in the growth of corporate Bitcoin holdings, with Strategy’s monthly growth rate falling to 5% in August from 44% at the end of 2024.

The narrowing premium has also raised concerns about potential share price volatility, especially as many DATs await the completion of mergers or financing deals that would allow their shares to trade freely. NYDIG warned that once these shares become available for unrestricted trading, a significant wave of selling could emerge, particularly if current share prices fall below recent fundraising levels. For example, Twenty One Capital’s shares are trading below its June $21 private investment in public equity (PIPE) price, while Nakamoto trades below its $5 additional PIPE but above its $1.12 PIPE. The risk of selling pressure increases if share prices continue to decline, as investors who bought at higher prices may seek to exit their positions.

To mitigate these risks, NYDIG recommended that DATs consider share buybacks as a stabilizing measure. Cipolaro emphasized that if share prices fall below NAV, reducing the supply of outstanding shares through buybacks could help support prices and restore investor confidence. However, most major DATs currently lack buyback programs, with the exception of Empery Digital, which trades at a 24% discount to NAV and has an active buyback program in place. Conversely, some firms, like Nakamoto, are issuing additional shares via at-the-market offerings, which could further compress premiums. NYDIG advised DATs to reserve some of the capital raised from fundraising for potential buybacks to stabilize their share prices.

Beyond immediate market dynamics, NYDIG noted the potential for a new phase of development in the DAT sector, including accretive mergers and acquisitions (M&A) or shareholder activism. A company with a higher NAV premium could acquire a lower-premium peer, increasing its Bitcoin per share while benefiting from the relative value gap. This dynamic could lead to consolidation among larger DATs capable of sustaining higher premiums and executing meaningful transactions. While this stage has yet to materialize, NYDIG suggested that if historical patterns hold, the trajectory of DAT premiums may serve as a predictive signal for Bitcoin cycles. For instance, MicroStrategy’s premium to NAV peaked in February 2021, months before Bitcoin reached its $69,000 high. In the current cycle, MicroStrategy’s premium peaked in November 2024, potentially indicating that the peak of the current Bitcoin cycle may be approaching. However, NYDIG cautioned that the sample size remains small, and more data is needed to confirm the predictive power of DAT premiums.

Bitcoin’s price action has also reflected broader market conditions. Over the past month, BTC has traded relatively flat, hovering around $111,200, and has fallen approximately 10.5% from its peak in mid-August. The combination of slowing corporate Bitcoin purchases and narrowing NAV premiums suggests that DAT stocks could face further volatility unless proactive measures are taken by management teams. As the crypto market continues to evolve, the interplay between DAT premiums, Bitcoin price movements, and corporate strategy will remain a critical area of focus for investors and analysts alike.

Source: [1] Crypto treasuries set for 'bumpy ride' as premiums narrow (https://cointelegraph.com/news/crypto-treasuries-bumpy-ride-premium-nav-narrow-nydig) [2] What DAT Premiums Say About the Cycle (https://www.nydig.com/research/what-dat-premiums-say-about-the-cycle) [3] Bitcoin Premium Bubble Has Burst: NYDIG Says The ... (https://bitcoinist.com/bitcoin-premium-bubble-burst-nydig-signal-clear/) [4] Corporate Crypto Treasury Surge Accelerates as Bitcoin ... (https://www.abc27.com/business/press-releases/cision/20250905LN66654/corporate-crypto-treasury-surge-accelerates-as-bitcoin-hits-fresh-institutional-milestone) [5] NYDIG Warns Bitcoin Treasuries Face Volatility as ... (https://bitbo.io/news/nydig-bitcoin-treasury-volatility/) [6] Tighter Premiums Put Crypto Treasuries On Risky Road ... (https://cryptorank.io/news/feed/a414d-tighter-premiums-put-crypto-treasuries-on-risky-road-according-to-nydig) [7] Are crypto treasury companies a marvel of financial ... (https://cryptoslate.com/are-crypto-treasury-companies-a-marvel-of-financial-engineering-or-a-ticking-time-bomb/)