Bitcoin News Today: Crypto Traders Anticipate 2024-Style Rally as Fed Rate Cuts Loom

Crypto traders are preparing for a potential repeat of last year’s dramatic market response following Federal Reserve rate cuts. Federal funds futures currently indicate a 98.5% probability of rate cuts by December 2025, with the most likely reduction being in the 375–400 basis points range, according to CME Group data [1]. The ZQZ5 contract, which expires at the end of 2025, is trading at 96.1475, reflecting the market’s strong conviction in easing monetary policy [1]. Over 96,000 open positions on the contract reinforce the widespread belief that the Fed is set to cut rates aggressively in the coming months [1].

The expectation of further easing has drawn comparisons to the 2024 rally, when Bitcoin and altcoins surged sharply following rate cuts. Traders are now positioning themselves for a similar scenario, especially after the unexpected September 2024 rate cut led to a sharp rebound in crypto prices [1]. Analyst BitBull highlighted on X that selling ahead of that cut proved to be a costly mistake, warning that history may repeat itself [1].

The push for cuts is being driven by a combination of soft labor market data and cooling inflation. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has suggested that rates could be cut by as much as 150–175 basis points, citing restrictive conditions and weak employment numbers from May through July [1]. Meanwhile, the July Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by just 0.2%, supported by a 2.2% drop in gasoline prices and stable food costs [1]. Goldman Sachs forecasts three 25 bps cuts in 2025 and two more in 2026, bringing the terminal rate to approximately 3–3.25% [1]. However, Barclays has cautioned against overconfidence, emphasizing the Fed’s focus on labor market risks [1].

Despite these forecasts, the market remains almost unanimous in its expectation of easing. If the 2024 pattern holds, Bitcoin and altcoins could see another rally as monetary policy becomes more accommodative in 2025 [1]. Traders are already monitoring key levels and positioning for a potential breakout, with the 200-day moving average seen as a crucial support for Bitcoin [2]. However, past volatility, such as the 29% drop in Bitcoin following a hawkish statement from Fed Chair Jerome Powell in 2024, serves as a reminder of the risks involved [2].

The broader crypto market is also showing signs of consolidation, with large-cap assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum dominating performance while smaller altcoins lag behind. The Advanced Decline Index for the top 100 cryptocurrencies has been declining since 2021, despite a growing overall market cap [3]. This trend reflects a shift toward “blue-chip dominance,” as noted by Benjamin Cowen of Into The Cryptoverse [3]. Unlike the 2020–2021 bull market, which was driven by broad-based liquidity, today’s environment is more selective, with liquidity concentrated in top-tier assets [3].

Despite recent pullbacks, some analysts remain optimistic. VanEck has maintained a $180,000 price target for Bitcoin, citing continued net positive flows into spot ETFs as a potential catalyst for further gains [4]. However, these forecasts are subject to change based on macroeconomic developments and regulatory actions.

As the Fed meeting approaches, the outcome will be closely watched for its potential impact on the crypto market. A confirmation of rate cuts could signal the start of a new bullish phase, while a delay or deviation from expectations could trigger renewed volatility. Traders are bracing for a pivotal moment that could shape the trajectory of digital assets in the near term.

---

[1] [Crypto Traders Brace for Fed Cuts: Is 2025 Another 2024-Style Rally?](https://coinmarketcap.com/community/articles/68a59db76f6d3f0f79f5b629/)