Bitcoin News Today: Crypto Market Navigates Fed Policy Shifts Treasury Moves Tariff Disputes as Bitcoin Rises 8% Amid $3.81T Cap

The cryptocurrency market’s trajectory this summer hinges on a critical convergence of macroeconomic and geopolitical events in the final week of July, as traders brace for pivotal decisions from the Federal Reserve, Treasury Department, and U.S. trade policy debates. Bitcoin (BTC) has hovered near $119,000, with total crypto market capitalization approaching $4 trillion, but analysts warn that the coming days will test whether this momentum can be sustained amid volatile macro conditions [1].

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on July 29–30 is the first major catalyst. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller recently argued for an immediate 25-basis-point rate cut, citing “temporary” inflation linked to tariffs and a strained labor market. Prediction markets on Kalshi assign a 40% probability of two rate cuts and 13% for three by December, while Goldman Sachs forecasts a first move in September. However, traders emphasize that even a single dovish dissent at the FOMC could accelerate expectations, reinforcing the September timeline. Treasury Secretary J. Yellen’s successor, Scott Bessent, has urged faster action, stating in a July 1 Fox News interview that “tariff inflation isn’t sticky” and the Fed should act sooner if data supports it [2].

The following day, July 30, will see the Treasury’s Quarterly Refunding Announcement (QRA), where borrowing plans could signal shifts in monetary policy. Bessent’s team has hinted at increased issuance of short-term bills to “manage the yield curve,” a strategy that could absorb liquidity critical to stablecoin and crypto markets. Analysts are monitoring maturity mixes to assess how Treasury policy might indirectly pressure crypto demand [3].

Meanwhile, trade policy remains a wildcard. A July 7 executive order extended retaliatory tariffs, triggering a 100% surcharge on Chinese imports set to take effect August 1 unless renegotiated. Bessent’s emergency trip to Stockholm underscores the fluidity of the situation. However, legal challenges could override diplomatic efforts. The Federal Circuit Court is set to hear arguments on July 31 in V.O.S. Selections v. Trump, a case testing whether the president can impose tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. A ruling against executive overreach could alleviate long-term inflation risks for crypto, while a pro-tariff outcome might entrench higher inflation expectations, dampening BTC’s appeal [4].

Bitcoin’s price has risen 8% in recent weeks as Treasury yields dropped to 4.34% on the 10-year benchmark, reflecting inverse correlations between rate-cut expectations and real yields. Market participants are advised to monitor three key signals: FOMC dot plots for tightening timelines, QRA borrowing structures, and tariff negotiation outcomes. As Forward Guidance host Felix Jauvin noted on X, “Stay frosty—the July events will define the rest of the year.”

At press time, crypto market cap stood at $3.81 trillion, just below the $4 trillion threshold. Traders remain cautious, balancing optimism over potential Fed easing against uncertainties in trade and legal fronts. The coming days will test whether crypto can withstand macro pressures or face renewed volatility [5].

Source: [1] [Crypto Market’s Fate Hangs On The Last Days Of July] [https://www.newsbtc.com/news/crypto-markets-fate-hangs-on-the-last-days-of-july/]

[2] [Crypto Market’s Fate Hangs On The Last Days Of July] [https://www.newsbtc.com/news/crypto-markets-fate-hangs-on-the-last-days-of-july/]

[3] [Crypto Market’s Fate Hangs On The Last Days Of July] [https://www.newsbtc.com/news/crypto-markets-fate-hangs-on-the-last-days-of-july/]

[4] [Crypto Market’s Fate Hangs On The Last Days Of July] [https://www.newsbtc.com/news/crypto-markets-fate-hangs-on-the-last-days-of-july/]

[5] [Crypto Market’s Fate Hangs On The Last Days Of July] [https://www.newsbtc.com/news/crypto-markets-fate-hangs-on-the-last-days-of-july/]