Bitcoin News Today: Crypto Market May Have Bottomed Amid Macro Headwinds and Earnings Doldrums

Following a sharp sell-off over the weekend, macro analyst Alex Krüger has suggested that the crypto market may have reached a tradable bottom, mirroring the 2024 “August crash” that found its low on a Monday [1]. Krüger noted that the current sell-off reflects a sequence of macroeconomic developments—namely, a hawkish Federal Reserve stance, mixed Big Tech earnings, and a disappointing jobs report—echoing the conditions that led to the August 2024 crash. He emphasized that the decline is a “classic shakeout” rather than the start of a prolonged bear market.

The market response to recent macroeconomic signals has been significant. The latest PCE data showed headline inflation rising to 2.6% year-over-year and core PCE at 2.8%, slightly above expectations [1]. Meanwhile, a downward revision of May and June’s employment figures by 258,000 jobs further exacerbated risk-off sentiment. The subsequent geopolitical tensions, including U.S. submarine repositioning and Russian downplaying of escalation risks, contributed to a volatile close. Krüger described these events as “noise” but acknowledged their role in amplifying market stress [1].

On the corporate earnings front, Microsoft and Meta outperformed estimates and initially rallied, while Apple faced a cooler reception. Amazon’s results were poorly received, with its stock falling 7–8% as concerns about AWS growth emerged [1]. Coinbase, however, fell sharply after missing revenue forecasts, further intensifying crypto-related pessimism. Krüger labeled the overall earnings environment “dreadful” for market sentiment [1].

Krüger also highlighted several crypto-specific factors that have compounded the bearish mood. These include the uncertain future of MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin buying, questions about the sustainability of digital-asset treasury firms tied to Ethereum, and broader regulatory shifts such as the SEC’s “Project Crypto,” which aims to modernize securities rules and promote on-chain infrastructure [1]. While the latter is viewed as a bullish development, Krüger stressed that macroeconomic forces remain the central driver of market direction.

Looking ahead, Krüger’s base case is that crypto has either already bottomed or will do so alongside equities on Monday, assuming continued volatility overnight. He plans to add long positions early Monday if conditions persist, mirroring the August 2024 pattern [1]. His bullish outlook hinges on a resilient U.S. economy, the start of Fed rate cuts, and a regulatory climate that supports broader institutional and retail participation.

The Fed’s policy landscape could also evolve, with the resignation of Governor Adriana Kugler creating a potential Board vacancy and former Governor Kevin Warsh advocating for a “Treasury–Fed accord.” Markets are now pricing in an 85% probability of a rate cut in September following the poor jobs report [1]. Krüger sees such institutional shifts as potentially significant later in the year.

Despite his optimism, Krüger remains cautious about risks, particularly if goods inflation accelerates due to corporate tariff pass-throughs, which could dampen momentum in ETH-linked treasuries. He set a one-year Bitcoin price target of $200,000–$250,000, conditional on ongoing adoption and a more dovish Fed by 2026 [1].

At press time, Bitcoin had rebounded above $115,000, signaling a potential stabilization in the short term [1].

Source: [1] Has The Crypto Market Bottomed? Analyst Says ‘This Is It’ (https://www.newsbtc.com/news/has-the-crypto-market-bottomed/)