Bitcoin News Today: Crypto's Fed-Driven Hopes Clash with Inflation, Slowing Jobs

The U.S. Federal Reserve's expected 25-basis-point rate cut in October 2025, with a 90–91% probability according to market indicators Bitrue^[1]Coindesk^[2]BeInCrypto^[3], has ignited speculation about its implications for the crypto market. The reduction, which would lower the target federal funds rate to 3.75%–4.00%, could inject liquidity into financial markets, potentially benefiting risk assets like Bitcoin and altcoins. Historical patterns suggest Bitcoin has historically rallied after Fed rate cuts, as seen in 2019 and 2020 Bitrue^[1]. However, analysts caution that persistent inflation above the 2% target and a slowing labor market could temper gains BeInCrypto^[3].

Bitcoin's price has shown resilience near key support levels, with the Altcoin Season Index reaching the 60s-a range often associated with increased altcoin activity Bitrue^[1]. Technical analyses highlight critical resistance at $119,000 for Bitcoin, where large short liquidation clusters exist, and support at $112,000 Coinpedia.org^[5]. Ethereum faces a similar consolidation phase between $4,250 and $4,500 Coinpedia.org^[5]. A breakout above these levels could trigger further momentum, while a breakdown risks renewed volatility.

Institutional investors are ramping up crypto exposure, with nearly 60% planning to double their digital asset holdings in the next three years Bitrue^[1]. Meanwhile, retail traders have adapted to volatility, with leverage-adjustment tools showing a 30% surge in usage ahead of the Fed's decision . Over $270 million in crypto positions were liquidated in late September as rate-cut expectations wavered, disproportionately affecting longs in Bitcoin and Ethereum Leverage.Trading^[6].

A 25-basis-point cut is the most likely outcome, potentially sparking a short-term Bitcoin rally but risking a "sell-the-news" pullback if positioning is overly bullish BeInCrypto^[3]. A larger 50-basis-point cut, though less probable, could accelerate gains but might signal deeper economic challenges, exacerbating stagflation fears BeInCrypto^[3]. Conversely, a no-cut scenario could strengthen the dollar and pressure risk assets, with altcoins facing sharper corrections BeInCrypto^[3].

Investors are advised to employ strategies like dollar-cost averaging, diversification into gold or Treasurys, and hedging with stablecoins to mitigate risks Bitrue^[1]BeInCrypto^[3]. Monitoring the Fed's post-meeting press conference for hints about future cuts or hawkish signals remains critical Bitrue^[1].

While the Fed's rate cut could provide a tailwind for crypto markets, the interplay of inflation, economic data, and regulatory developments will shape its trajectory. Investors must balance optimism with caution, as both Bitcoin and altcoins remain vulnerable to macroeconomic headwinds and liquidity shifts.