Bitcoin News Today: Crypto ETFs Weather Geopolitical Storm as Institutional Optimism Prevails

Bitcoin and Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs) saw record inflows in early October 2025, driven by optimism over Federal Reserve easing and institutional adoption, even as geopolitical tensions briefly triggered a market selloff. The U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs alone attracted $5.95 billion in the week ending October 4, propelling Bitcoin to a record high of $126,000 . However, renewed U.S.-China trade tensions sparked a 10% crash in crypto markets on October 10–11, wiping out $19–20 billion in leveraged positions . By October 12, prices stabilized, with Bitcoin rebounding to $111–112K, as analysts noted the "worst of the selling had passed" .

The Fed's September 2025 rate cut of 0.25% and expectations of further reductions by year-end have bolstered risk assets. Historically, dovish monetary policy correlates with Bitcoin gains, and current inflation levels (~3%) reinforce its "digital gold" narrative . Regulatory developments also played a key role: the U.S. passed the GENIUS Act in July 2025, clarifying rules for stablecoins, while the SEC streamlined ETF approvals in September . These measures are expected to accelerate altcoin ETF launches, further expanding institutional access to crypto .

Institutional demand has surged, with U.S. Bitcoin ETFs and corporate treasuries now controlling 12.2% of all BTC supply . BlackRock's IBIT, the largest Bitcoin ETF, holds $93.11 billion in assets, while Fidelity's FBTC and Grayscale's GBTC also saw significant inflows . This accumulation has reduced Bitcoin's volatility-daily price swings halved post-ETF launch-and attracted traditional investors, including MicroStrategy and Tesla, which added to their BTC holdings .

Analysts offer a wide range of 2026 price targets for Bitcoin. Standard Chartered projects $200K by year-end 2025 and $300K by late 2026 , while Citigroup and JPMorgan model six-figure prices . On-chain data shows strong fundamentals: network security is at record highs, and 94.5% of BTC is held in profit . However, technical indicators warn of near-term volatility. Bitcoin's RSI and MACD suggest overbought conditions, and a correction to the $108K–$110K support zone is seen as a likely near-term scenario .

A bullish case hinges on sustained Fed easing, continued ETF inflows, and geopolitical stability. If Bitcoin holds above $120K, analysts project a move toward $135K–$200K by year-end . Conversely, a bearish scenario-triggered by a hawkish Fed pivot, trade war escalation, or regulatory crackdown-could see prices fall to $60K–$80K by 2026 . Elliott Wave analyst John Glover predicts a 2026 bear market, with Bitcoin peaking at $135K–$140K before correcting .

Despite the October selloff, ETF inflows remain robust. In the week ending October 13, crypto funds attracted $3.17 billion, with Bitcoin ETFs adding $2.71 billion . However, Ethereum ETFs faced $428.5 million in outflows, marking three consecutive days of redemptions . BlackRock's ETHA led the decline, withdrawing $310.1 million, while Grayscale's ETHE and Fidelity's FETH also saw significant redemptions .

The next 100 days will be critical for Bitcoin, as technical analysts note compressed volatility and potential for a parabolic move or correction . Investors are advised to monitor Fed policy, ETF flows, and geopolitical risks. If Bitcoin breaks above $123K, the path to $130K and beyond becomes more viable . Meanwhile, Ethereum's price action remains tied to Bitcoin's trajectory, with altcoins potentially gaining as ETF approvals expand .

[1] Bitcoin Price Predictions 2025–2026: Will BTC Hit $300K or Crash ... (https://ts2.tech/en/bitcoin-price-predictions-2025-2026-will-btc-hit-300k-or-crash-below-60k/)

[2] Bitcoin Blazes Past $120,000 as ETF Inflows and Fed Rate Cut ... (https://www.financialcontent.com/article/breakingcrypto-2025-10-2-bitcoin-blazes-past-120000-as-etf-inflows-and-fed-rate-cut-hopes-fuel-historic-rally)

[3] Bitcoin and Ethereum Spot ETFs Bleed $755M as Post-Wipeout ... (https://cryptonews.com/news/bitcoin-and-ethereum-spot-etfs-bleed-755m-as-post-wipeout-fear-grips-traders/)

[4] Bitcoin Price Prediction 2025: Will BTC Break $126K ... (https://www.ebc.com/forex/bitcoin-price-prediction-2025-will-btc-break-126k-ath)

[5] Crypto Market Crash: Bitcoin and Ethereum Plunge as ... (https://coinpedia.org/price-analysis/crypto-market-crash-bitcoin-and-ethereum-plunge-as-us-china-tensions-and-5b-liquidations-shake-investors/)

[6] Crypto Funds See $3.17B Weekly Inflows Despite US–China Tariff ... (https://cryptonews.com/news/crypto-funds-see-3-17b-weekly-inflows-despite-us-china-tariff-turmoil/)

[7] Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs Record $755M Outflows Amid ... (https://cryptopress.site/crypto/bitcoin-and-ethereum-etfs-record-755m-outflows-amid-escalatingus-china-trade-tensions/)

[8] Bitcoin ETF Volume Surges Amid U.S.-China Trade Tensions (https://coinlive.me/bitcoin-etf-volume-us-china-tensions/)

[9] BlackRock and Fidelity Push U.S. Bitcoin ETFs to ... (https://defi-planet.com/2025/08/blackrock-and-fidelity-push-u-s-bitcoin-etfs-to-record-1-25m-btc/)

[10] U.S. Bitcoin ETFs Log $1B Inflows Again, a Level That's ... (https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/10/07/u-s-bitcoin-etfs-log-usd1b-inflows-again-a-level-that-s-marked-local-tops-six-times-before)

[11] US Bitcoin ETFs Reach $50B Milestone - Cointribune (https://www.cointribune.com/en/bitcoin-etf-inflows-2025-record/)