The U.S. government shutdown has disrupted the release of critical economic data, including the September 2025 Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which was delayed until October 24. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) faces significant challenges in compiling accurate data, with 60% of CPI price quotes—gathered via in-person and telephone surveys—missing for much of October. This gap, particularly in the housing component (which accounts for one-third of CPI weight), could widen the 95% confidence interval for headline CPI, with errors persisting into spring 2026. Alternative datasets like Truflation and the Adobe Digital Price Index offer interim insights but lack methodological consistency with official CPI metrics, according to
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The shutdown's economic ripple effects extend beyond data delays. With a partial government closure entering its 21st day, sectors from agriculture to real estate face operational hurdles. While temporary funding measures have been implemented, unresolved disputes over healthcare subsidies—key to Democrats' demands for a shutdown resolution—have stalled broader legislative action. White House Chief Economic Advisor Kevin Hassett suggested the administration may adopt "more forceful measures" if Congress fails to reopen the government by the end of October, as reported in a
.Cryptocurrency markets have also felt the strain.
ETFs recorded $145 million in outflows on Monday, compounding $311 million in losses from the previous week, as investors grappled with macroeconomic uncertainty. Ethereum's price, trading at $3,973, showed modest gains but remains 9.5% below its monthly peak. The delayed CPI data has heightened volatility, with experts noting that a hotter-than-expected inflation reading could push Ethereum toward $3,700, while softer data might spur short-covering rallies, according to .The delayed CPI data has also complicated the calculation of Social Security's 2026 cost-of-living adjustment (COLA). Originally tied to the September CPI release, the COLA announcement is now postponed until October 24. Analysts anticipate a higher-than-expected adjustment, driven by President Trump's policies, which have kept inflation elevated. However, the delayed data introduces uncertainty, potentially leaving retirees with an inflated COLA that fails to address broader cost-of-living challenges, according to
.Meanwhile, the upcoming CPI release has become a focal point for global markets. A cooler-than-expected reading of 3% in September—below the 3.1% forecast—boosted risk assets, with the S&P 500 hitting record highs and
surging to $112,000. The Federal Reserve's anticipated 0.25% rate cut at its October 29 meeting gained further traction, with the CME FedWatch tool showing a 98.9% probability of easing. However, Bitcoin faced resistance at $112,000, underscoring the fragility of gains in a volatile environment, per .Traders and analysts remain divided on the CPI's potential impact. A reading above 3.1% could force the Fed to maintain restrictive rates, dampening risk-on sentiment and pressuring cryptocurrencies. Conversely, a sub-3% reading might catalyze a broader market rally, with Bitcoin potentially testing $115,000. The outcome will also influence the trajectory of Ethereum and altcoins, which exhibit higher volatility relative to Bitcoin. Prediction markets on platforms like Myriad suggest a 60% chance of the shutdown lasting 35 days, surpassing historical precedents, as noted by
.As the U.S. awaits the October 24 CPI report, the economic and political stakes remain high. The delayed data has created a "data vacuum" for policymakers, while markets brace for volatility. With the Fed's dual mandate of managing inflation and unemployment increasingly at odds, the next CPI reading could dictate the path of monetary policy—and, by extension, the fate of risk assets like cryptocurrencies. Investors are advised to monitor both the October 24 CPI and the broader political landscape, where a resolution to the shutdown remains uncertain.
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