Bitcoin News Today: Converging Technical and Macro Signals Position Bitcoin for All-Time High in 2025

Bitcoin's price trajectory has drawn heightened attention as technical analysts highlight key Fibonacci extension levels and market indicators suggesting potential for a new all-time high. Jake Wu, a prominent market watcher, identifies the 1.618 Fibonacci extension at $130,558 as a critical target for Bitcoin, derived from its rally between August 2024 and April 2025. This projection stems from a 57% gain during that period, followed by consolidation and a corrective pullback to $109,000 in late September. The $108,000 level has emerged as a structural support zone, marked by significant volume activity, which has underpinned the recent 10% rebound in early October Bitcoin Price Rally Targets $130K as Fibonacci Extension Comes Into Focus^[1].

Complementary analysis from Ali Martinez, leveraging Glassnode's MVRV Extreme Deviation Pricing Bands, suggests Bitcoin could extend its rally toward $138,816, the +1σ band. The current price has already surpassed the +0.5σ threshold at $116,733, a level historically associated with further upward momentum. Martinez notes that Bitcoin's realized price of $53,931 underscores a broad profit margin for long-term holders, a condition often linked to sustained bullish trends H2 2025 Bitcoin Outlook: Bulls Eyeing an Extension to $130K+?^[2].

Derivatives market data from Binance reinforces the bullish narrative. On September 25, Bitcoin's 13.5% drop in open interest signaled a capitulation phase, flushing weaker positions from the market. By October 2, open interest rebounded by 11%, reflecting aggressive accumulation. Binance's net taker volume surged to $1.62 billion, the strongest reading of the month, indicating a shift from defensive to aggressive buying. Liquidations at the $119,000 level further accelerated the rally as short positions were forced to cover Bitcoin Price Rally Targets $130K as Fibonacci Extension Comes Into Focus^[1].

Technical indicators also support a continuation of the uptrend. Bitcoin's 50-week EMA remains a dynamic support line, currently near $90,000, while the 14-week RSI has held above 45, a threshold historically aligned with strong bullish momentum. Analysts caution that a breakdown below $74,000 could signal a shift in the longer-term trend, but as of early October, Bitcoin remains within the projected Fibonacci range of $119K (127.2%) and $131K (161.8%) H2 2025 Bitcoin Outlook: Bulls Eyeing an Extension to $130K+?^[2].

Broader macroeconomic factors, including institutional adoption and ETF inflows, contribute to the optimism. The second half of 2025 has seen renewed interest in Bitcoin as a hedge against fiat deprecation, with global M2 money supply growth reaccelerating to over 8% year-on-year. Additionally, inflows into Bitcoin ETFs have approached $50 billion, with analysts suggesting this trend could limit downside risks during mid-cycle corrections H2 2025 Bitcoin Outlook: Bulls Eyeing an Extension to $130K+?^[2].

While short-term volatility remains a concern, the consensus among technical analysts points to a continuation of the bullish trend, contingent on maintaining key support levels and navigating macroeconomic uncertainties. The interplay of Fibonacci projections, MVRV metrics, and derivatives data collectively positions Bitcoin at a pivotal juncture in its 2025 cycle.