Bitcoin News Today: Citi Projects Bitcoin to $132K as "Digital Gold" and ETFs Surge; Ethereum's Staking Drives $4.5K Target

Citi has revised its price targets for Bitcoin and Ethereum, projecting Bitcoin could reach $132,000 by year-end and $181,000 over the next 12 months, while Ethereum's year-end target has been raised to $4,500 and $5,440 for the 12-month horizon. These updates reflect growing institutional demand, record inflows into spot ETFs, and the maturation of crypto as an asset class. The bank attributes Bitcoin's potential to its role as "digital gold," emphasizing its large market size and resilience amid macroeconomic headwinds such as a stronger U.S. dollar and weaker gold prices. For Ethereum, Citi highlights staking adoption, DeFi integration, and rising ETF participation as key drivers, with institutional investors increasing purchases during the summertitle1^[1].

The forecasts underscore the growing influence of ETF flows on crypto markets. Citi estimates that ETF inflows now account for over 40% of Bitcoin's price variation, with $1 billion in inflows correlating to approximately 4.7% price gains. As of November 2024, Bitcoin ETFs had surpassed $100 billion in net assets, signaling robust institutional interest. The bank also notes that Ethereum's upside depends on network activity, making its downside projections harder to model compared to Bitcoin. Analysts at Citi project $7.5 billion in Bitcoin ETF inflows by year-end under a base case scenario, with a bull case contingent on stronger equity marketstitle2^[2].

Ethereum's revised target has sparked debate, as on-chain data suggests the token is trading near $4,542, challenging Citi's $4,300 base case. Liquidation imbalances and positive funding rates indicate sustained bullish conviction, with short liquidations exceeding $9 million in recent weeks. This divergence between traditional analyst caution and on-chain signals highlights Ethereum's potential to outperform expectations, particularly if macroeconomic conditions stabilizetitle5^[3].

Citi's analysis also incorporates macroeconomic risks, including a potential recessionary scenario where Bitcoin could fall to $83,000. However, the bank emphasizes that sustained investor demand remains critical to supporting both tokens through year-end and into 2026. The report notes that Bitcoin's price resilience is bolstered by its role as a hedge against fiscal instability, particularly as the U.S. government shutdown delayed key economic data releases, prompting a rotation into decentralized assetstitle7^[4].

The broader crypto ecosystem is being shaped by stablecoin adoption and regulatory clarity. Citi forecasts stablecoin issuance could reach $1.9 trillion by 2030, up from a prior estimate of $1.6 trillion, with optimistic scenarios projecting $4 trillion. The bank views stablecoins as foundational to DeFi growth, enabling lending, borrowing, and other financial services. Additionally, the election of Donald Trump as U.S. president has been cited as a catalyst for crypto-friendly policies, with regulatory shifts potentially accelerating institutional participationtitle4^[5].

Comparative analysis with gold reveals Bitcoin's evolving role as a store of value. While gold's volatility (15.5% annualized) remains lower than Bitcoin's (52.2%), the gap has narrowed over time. Citi's report suggests Bitcoin's volatility is declining as the market matures, with the asset increasingly viewed as a complement to traditional safe-haven assets. Analysts also note that Bitcoin's monetary policy-capped supply and programmable scarcity-differentiates it from gold, which has an exponentially expanding supply due to mining advancementstitle8^[6].