Bitcoin News Today: Central Banks Fuel Gold's Record Surge Amid Global Turmoil

Spot Gold Reaches Historic High as U.S. Fed Signals Policy Flexibility

Spot gold prices surged to a record $4,165 per ounce on October 15, 2025, driven by escalating geopolitical tensions, a weaker U.S. dollar, and growing expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts. The rally, now in its third consecutive week, reflects a global shift toward safe-haven assets amid uncertainty over U.S.-China trade conflicts, the Russia-Ukraine war, and a prolonged federal government shutdown. Analysts note that the Fed's dovish signals and declining real interest rates have further amplified demand for the non-yielding metal, which has gained over 42% year-to-date [1].

The Federal Reserve's evolving policy stance remains a critical catalyst. With traders pricing in a 90% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut in October and another in December, the dollar's 14-month low has reduced the opportunity cost of holding gold. Fed Chair Jerome Powell's recent comments on labor market weakness and inflation persistence have reinforced expectations of accommodative policy, even as officials avoid explicit guidance [1]. This dynamic aligns with historical patterns: gold typically thrives when real interest rates fall, as seen during the 2008 financial crisis and post-quantitative easing periods [2].

Central bank demand has also bolstered gold's ascent. The World Gold Council reported that global central banks purchased nearly 920 tons of gold in the first three quarters of 2025-the highest level in over six decades. China, India, and Singapore have led the charge, diversifying away from U.S. Treasury holdings amid geopolitical realignments. These purchases create a structural floor for prices, shielding gold from traditional headwinds like Fed tightening [3].

Geopolitical risks remain a dominant factor. U.S. President Donald Trump's renewed trade threats, including 100% tariffs on Chinese imports, and Russia's intensified strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure have heightened safe-haven flows. Meanwhile, the unresolved U.S. government shutdown and delayed macroeconomic data have kept markets fixated on Fed officials' rhetoric, which continues to influence dollar demand and, by extension, gold prices [1].

The surge has spilled into physical markets, with Asian demand surging despite record highs. In India, jewelers report robust Diwali sales, while Vietnam and Thailand see long lines at bullion stores. China's relaxed gold import rules have further fueled domestic appetite, signaling broader confidence in the metal's role as a store of value [3].

Investors are now weighing gold's performance against cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin. While Bitcoin has lagged gold's 2025 gains, some analysts argue that digital assets may eventually absorb capital flows as gold peaks. Historical data shows a pattern of liquidity shifting from gold to Bitcoin during bull cycles, as seen in 2017 and 2020. However, gold's current dominance is underpinned by its status as a universally accepted hedge, whereas Bitcoin remains tied to tech sector volatility and regulatory uncertainty [4].

Technical indicators suggest the gold rally is far from exhausted. The price has broken out of a multi-year ascending channel, supported by a key $3,500 level, and remains above critical trend-line resistance. Analysts caution that overbought conditions and speculative excess could trigger corrections, but the broader bullish case remains intact as long as the Fed maintains dovish signals and geopolitical risks persist [1].

Looking ahead, major institutions like Goldman Sachs and UBS have raised 2025 gold forecasts to $4,250–$4,300, with potential for a $4,500 peak if rate cuts materialize. However, a stronger dollar or unexpected inflation rebound could temper gains. The December Fed meeting will be pivotal, with policymakers' stance determining whether gold's record-breaking run extends into early 2026 [3].