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Bitcoin Set for Massive Surge as Bank Reserves Near 'Danger Zone,' Says Adam Livingston
Bitcoin is poised for a significant price rally as global central bank reserves approach levels that could trigger a new bull market, according to Adam Livingston, a financial analyst tracking monetary policy trends. The warning comes amid data showing unprecedented expansion in the M2 global money supply, a metric that has historically aligned with Bitcoin's price cycles.

The M2 global measure-which encompasses cash, checking and savings deposits, money market accounts, and smaller deposits under $100,000-has surged year-over-year, driven by aggressive monetary easing from central banks. Institutions including the U.S. Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the People's Bank of China, and the Bank of Japan have expanded liquidity through rate cuts and asset purchases, pushing the global money supply to record levels, according to the
. The correlation between Bitcoin's price and M2 growth has been a recurring theme in prior bull markets, with often rising in tandem with increased liquidity, according to that chart.Livingston's analysis highlights that the current trajectory of M2 growth mirrors patterns observed during Bitcoin's previous all-time highs in 2017 and 2021. "When central banks flood economies with liquidity, it creates a 'danger zone' where traditional assets struggle to keep pace with inflation, and alternative stores of value like Bitcoin gain traction," he said. The data, sourced from 21 central banks across North America, Europe, Asia, Latin America, the Middle East, and Africa, underscores the global scale of monetary expansion, as shown in the M2 global chart.
The M2 global dataset reveals a consistent pattern: periods of rapid liquidity growth often precede Bitcoin's price surges. For example, the 2020-2021 bull run coincided with trillions in stimulus from central banks, while the 2023-2024 uptick in M2 growth suggests a similar dynamic may be unfolding, according to the same M2 global chart. Analysts note that Bitcoin's scarcity-its fixed supply of 21 million coins-makes it a hedge against uncontrolled money printing, a narrative that has gained traction as inflation remains elevated.
Critics argue that the M2-Bitcoin correlation is not foolproof, citing periods where Bitcoin's price deviated from liquidity trends. However, Livingston contends that the current environment, marked by geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty, amplifies the demand for decentralized assets. "Bitcoin's appeal lies in its resistance to devaluation, and with central banks pushing M2 to new highs, we're seeing a perfect storm for a price breakout," he added.
The implications for markets are clear: as the M2 global metric accelerates, Bitcoin could enter a new bull phase. Traders and institutional investors are closely watching central bank policies and M2 growth rates to gauge the timing of potential entry points. For now, the data paints a compelling case for Bitcoin's role as a counterweight to a rapidly expanding global money supply.
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